Liverpool vs Brentford: match statistics

Liverpool are the favorites: at home they average 1.83 goals per match with an average xG of 1.86 and 5 shots on target per game, while Brentford away averages 1.17 goals, xG 1.17 and 3.72 shots on target. The hosts register 59% possession versus 48% for the visitors and have a lower share of matches without scoring – 11% vs 39% for Brentford, indicating superiority in chance quality and offensive consistency. Defensively Liverpool concede 1.06 goals at home on average, whereas Brentford concede 1.67 goals away and have a higher average xG against (1.60 vs 1.26), giving the hosts an advantage in limiting threats. Brentford show a higher shot conversion (13% vs 11% for Liverpool) but from a much smaller volume of shots (9.22 vs 16.83 on average), so their scoring potential is quantitatively limited. In the last 5 matches Liverpool have scored 10 and conceded 10 (PPG 1.4), while Brentford have 6 for and 7 against (PPG 1.0); therefore I predict a Liverpool win.

Data indicate a BTTS-favoring scenario: Liverpool has a season BTTS of 58% and BTTS 100% in the last 5 matches, while Brentford has a season BTTS of 44% and only 40% in the last 5, so the home side’s form (100% vs 40%) strongly increases the chance of both teams scoring. Liverpool averages 1.74 goals per game with xG 1.39 and 12.0 shots, and Brentford has 1.17 goals and xG 1.17 with 9.22 shots; concurrently Brentford concedes 1.67 goals on average (xG against 1.6), and Liverpool has conceded 2.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches (10 conceded), which raises the likelihood that Brentford will find the net. Clean sheets occur in only 26% of home matches and 28% for the away side, while league average goals are 2.76 with league BTTS at 56%, further supporting mutual scoring. Counterpoints are Brentford’s lower seasonal BTTS (44%) and the fact Liverpool concedes only 1.11 goals per game on the season, however these signals are weaker versus Liverpool’s last-5 form with 100% BTTS and 10 goals conceded. As a result I recommend BTTS - Yes with an estimated probability of 65% for Yes and 35% for No, because the combination of the home side’s form and defensive vulnerability favors both teams to score.

Both teams have high rates of matches with at least 2 goals: Liverpool at home records Over 1.5 in 79% of games, Brentford away in 83%, which provides a strong signal for Over 1.5. xG and goal averages confirm this: Liverpool has xG 1.39 and scores 1.74 goals at home, Brentford has xG_for 1.17 and scores 1.17 goals away; combined expected goals are approximately 1.65 for Liverpool and 1.20 for Brentford, total ≈2.85. Additionally, in the last 5 matches Liverpool scored 10 goals (2.0 avg.) and Brentford 6 goals (1.2 avg.), and both teams recorded Over 2.5 in 80% of their last five games, which increases the likelihood of more than 2 goals in the match. Taking this into account I assess probabilities as: Over 1.5 = 80%, Over 2.5 = 55% and Over 3.5 = 33%; the best and most reliable betting option is Over 1.5 due to the high seasonal percentages 79%/83% and the expected 2.85 goals.

The most likely scenario is Liverpool leading at half-time and the hosts winning (HT/FT 1/1): Liverpool led at half in 8 matches (42%), while Brentford were trailing at half in 7 games (39%). Liverpool average 0.74 goals by half-time versus Brentford’s 0.56 and have a season average of 1.74 goals per match compared to 1.17, indicating an offensive edge for the hosts. In the second half Liverpool average 1.00 goals scored and 0.58 conceded, while Brentford score 0.61 and concede 0.89, so the hosts have a better second-half balance and a higher probability of maintaining the lead. Additionally, Liverpool generate 1.39 xG at home, whereas Brentford concede 1.60 xG away, and in the last five home matches Liverpool scored eight first-half goals and led in 40% of those games; therefore I select HT/FT 1/1.