Livingston vs Queen's Park: match statistics

Livingston holds a clear edge over the last five matches: they have scored 13 goals (avg. 2.6 per game) and remain unbeaten in that period (3 wins, 2 draws). Queen's Park scored 10 goals (2.0 per game) and suffered one defeat (3-1-1), while conceding more — 5 goals in the last five (1.0 per game) versus 2 conceded by Livingston (0.4 per game). In terms of points from the last five fixtures the hosts average 2.2 points per match, the visitors 2.0, and the goal difference over that span is +11 for Livingston (13-2) and +5 for Queen's Park (10-5). Additionally, league position (hosts 6th vs visitors 8th) combined with superior attacking efficiency and a more solid defensive record for the hosts favors Livingston. Therefore I predict a home win and estimate probabilities at approximately 55% for Livingston, 25% for a draw and 20% for Queen's Park.

Queen's Park had BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches (4 of 5), while Livingston only in 40% (2 of 5), giving a simple average of 60% as a starting point. Livingston scored 13 and conceded only 2 in their last 5 matches (avg 2.6 scored and 0.4 conceded), whereas Queen's Park scored 10 and conceded 5 (avg 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded), so Livingston has the better defense but both teams possess strong attacks. Expected goals (xG) are similar: Livingston has xG of 1.64 versus 1.58 for Queen's Park, and xG against is 1.13 versus 1.29, suggesting both sides create around 1.6 xG per match. Given Queen's Park's high BTTS rate (80%), the similar xG and average goals scored (2.6 vs 2.0), BTTS - Yes appears more likely. I estimate BTTS probability at 65% for 'yes' and 35% for 'no'.

In the last 5 matches Livingston scored 13 goals (2.6 per match) and conceded 2 (0.4 per match), while Queen's Park scored 10 goals (2.0 per match) and conceded 5 (1.0 per match). Average xG in those 5 matches is 1.64 for Livingston and 1.58 for Queen's Park with xG against 1.13 and 1.29; a simple model combining actual goals and xG yields expected 1.63 goals for the home side and 1.28 for the away side, total 2.91. Under a Poisson distribution with an expected sum of 2.91, the result implies roughly a 79% chance of Over 1.5, 56% for Over 2.5 and 33% for Over 3.5, supporting a multi-goal match scenario. Additionally, the Over 2.5 share in the last 5 matches is 40% for Livingston and 60% for Queen's Park, and the Both Teams To Score rate is 40%/80%, which further reinforces backing the Over 1.5 market as the strongest signal.

The home side led at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches (60%), averaging 1.6 goals by Half-Time and conceding only 0.2, while Queen's Park led at the break in just 1 of 5 (20%) and averages 0.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded in the first 45 minutes. Over full matches Livingston averages 2.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, whereas the visitors average 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded, demonstrating the hosts' superiority in chance creation and defensive stability. The hosts were not trailing at Half-Time in these 5 fixtures (0% trailingAtHT) and kept a Half-Time clean sheet in 4 of 5 (80%), while the visitors had an HT clean sheet in only 1 of 5 (20%), which increases the likelihood of Livingston leading at the break and seeing the win through. The visitors are, however, more active in second halves across the last 5 matches (averaging 1.4 goals in the second half versus the hosts' 1.2), so I allow a small chance of a draw or a turnaround, but the strongest signal from the data points to 1/1 (HT/FT).