Llanelli Town vs Bala Town: match statistics

Bala Town are the favorites based on the data: the visitors have 27 goals scored in the season versus 17 for the hosts and a better goal difference (-11 vs -23). In home matches Llanelli average only 0.47 goals and fail to score in 60% of games, while Bala average 0.93 goals away and have an FTS of 40%. The visitors also create slightly more and convert chances better — on average 7.93 shots and 3.67 on target per match with a conversion rate of 12% versus 7.13, 3.13 and 7% for the hosts; xG for Bala is 1.10 versus 0.98 for Llanelli. Defensively the hosts concede 2.00 goals at home on average, while Bala concede 1.67 away, and in the last 5 matches Llanelli have scored 3 and conceded 6, whereas Bala have scored 4 and conceded 5. Due to the greater number of chances, higher conversion (12% vs 7%) and the hosts’ high FTS (60% vs 40%), I tip a Bala Town win.

Season BTTS rate for both teams is 40% each, however in the last 5 matches Bala has BTTS 60% vs Llanelli’s 40%, giving the visitors the form edge. Bala creates more chances: last 5 matches xG 1.34 vs 0.94 for Llanelli and 4 goals scored (0.8 per match), plus 3.67 SOT average vs the hosts’ 2.87. Llanelli have serious defensive issues — conceded 71 goals this season with a seasonal average of 1.20 goals conceded per match, and in the last 5 games expected xG against is 2.03, increasing the risk of conceding. Additionally Bala have higher shot conversion (12% vs 10%), which together with the SOT advantage increases the likelihood of Goal/Goal. Taking these figures into account I rate BTTS - Yes at 62% and No Goal at 38%.

I project 1.53 goals for Llanelli and 1.34 for Bala (total 2.87) — calculated as the average of the team’s attacking xG and the opponent’s defensive xG: (1.11 + 1.95)/2 = 1.53 and (1.10 + 1.57)/2 = 1.34. The strongest signal is for Over 1.5: Bala have had 87% of matches over 1.5 goals, Llanelli 53%, and both teams show high Over 0.5 rates (home 80%, away 100%); additionally, hosts concede on average 1.20 goals and visitors 1.67, which supports goals. The 2.5 line is moderately tilted to Over (around 60%), since the expected 2.87 is above the 2.5 threshold and the league average is 2.89 goals per match, although season Over 2.5 rates are only 27% for hosts and 53% for visitors. I assess Over 3.5 as unlikely (about 25%), because only 27% of home matches and 20% of away matches exceeded 3.5 goals, and our expectation of 2.87 is well below that threshold. The best play is Over 1.5 as the strongest signal, based on Bala’s 87% occurrence above 1.5, 80–100% Over 0.5 rates and the projected 2.87 goals.

At half-time a draw is more likely: the home side average 0.6 goals by the break and the visitors 0.4, while half-time draws occur in 33% of Llanelli’s matches and 40% of Bala’s, providing a strong signal for a level score at the interval. In the second half Bala concedes on average 1.13 goals and 80% of their matches see at least one goal after the break, whereas Llanelli score on average 0.27 goals after half-time, which favors a home turnaround after the interval. Both teams’ xG are almost identical (1.11 vs 1.10), but Bala’s expected goals against are higher (1.95 versus 1.57 for Llanelli), indicating a weaker Bala defense and a greater likelihood of them surrendering a lead. Given the hosts’ higher average points at home (1.07 versus 0.87 for the visitors) and their frequent draws (47% home draws), the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1).