Los Andes vs Ciudad de Bolívar: match statistics

Ciudad de Bolívar has the edge in finishing and defense: away conversion rate is 12% vs 5% for Los Andes at home, the visitors have not lost away (Loss% = 0) and boast 89% clean sheets on the road vs 70% for the hosts. Los Andes, however, create more chances — home xG 1.47 vs visitors’ 0.93 xG away, shots per game 11.3 vs 6.67 and possession 54% vs 38%. The gap between xG and actual goals is crucial: the hosts score only 0.6 goals at home on average despite 1.47 xG and have 60% of matches without scoring (FTS 60%), while the visitors score 0.78 goals away on a lower xG but have FTS only 33%. Although Los Andes have conceded 7 goals this season vs 12 for the visitors, Ciudad de Bolívar concedes only 0.11 goals per away game, which together with the high clean-sheet rate points to a narrow, low-scoring away win. Based on this I back “2”; probability distribution: home 20%, draw 35%, away 45%.

The strongest signal points to "no": Ciudad de Bolívar maintains a clean sheet in 89% of matches this season, and their seasonal BTTS is only 11%, which significantly reduces the probability of BTTS - Yes. At league level, 77% of matches end with a clean sheet for one side and the average goals per match is only 1.87, so the competition environment favors No Goal outcomes. Counterarguments: Los Andes has a seasonal BTTS of 60%, scores on average 1.1 goals with xG 1.19, and in the last 5 matches Ciudad de Bolívar had 80% BTTS and scored 6 goals (1.2 avg), which increases the risk of Goal/Goal. However, the visitors’ seasonal distribution (average goals conceded 0.11 and 89% clean sheets) and the hosts’ weak BTTS in the last 5 matches (20%) outweigh this risk. Therefore I forecast a 28% chance for BTTS ("yes") and 72% for No Goal ("no"), pick: "no".

Average xG are 1.19 for Los Andes and 0.93 for Ciudad de Bolívar, while xG conceded by both teams is 1.59; averaged values yield expected goals of 1.39 for Los Andes and 1.26 for Ciudad (total 2.65). Los Andes averages 10.0 shots and 2.0 on target with a conversion rate of 11%, whereas Ciudad averages 6.67 shots and 2.78 on target with a 12% conversion, indicating the home side creates more chances while the opponents are moderately efficient. Seasonal percentages show Los Andes with 60% of matches over 1.5 goals and 40% over 2.5, while Ciudad only has 22% over 1.5 and 0% over 2.5, and Ciudad also has 89% clean sheets — mixed signals but favoring a lower goal volume rather than a high-scoring game. A Poisson model with λ=2.65 gives probability of over 1.5 goals at about 74%, over 2.5 at about 49%, and over 3.5 at about 28%, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals. Additionally, the last 5 matches of both teams show a combined 10 goals scored (Los Andes 4, Ciudad 6), which further supports a minimum-two-goal scenario for this fixture.

Both teams are frequently level at the break: Los Andes were level HT in 70% of matches, Ciudad de Bolívar in 67%, and the hosts scored 11 goals by half-time versus 3 for the visitors — a strong signal for a draw at HT. At the same time Ciudad de Bolívar win 56% of their matches and average 2.11 points per game versus 1.3 for Los Andes; the visitors concede only 0.11 goals per game on average and have a season clean sheet percentage of 89%, and they have not conceded by the break (concededAVGHT_away 0.0, seasonCSPercentageHT_away 100%). Los Andes generate slightly higher xG (1.19 vs 0.93) and more shots (10.0 vs 6.67) and score on average 0.6 goals by half-time, but with an average of 1.1 goals conceded it is hard to expect that creative superiority alone will be enough to hold a lead. Therefore, combining the high rate of draws at half-time (70%/67%) with the visitors’ advantages in results and defense (56% wins, 0.11 goals conceded), the strongest signal from the data is a Half-Time draw and a Full-Time away win (X/2).