Louisville City vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds: match statistics

Louisville City are favorites in this matchup: at home they average 18.25 shots per game and 6 shots on target, translating to 2.25 goals scored and xG 2.11 per game, versus Pittsburgh’s 9.2 shots, 3.8 shots on target, 1.0 goal and xG 1.27 per away match. Defensively the hosts concede 1.25 goals per home game with xG against 0.79, while the visitors concede 1.8 goals on the road with xG against 1.17, giving Louisville an edge in defensive stability. In the last 5 fixtures Louisville won 3 matches and averages 1.8 points per game, while Pittsburgh has 2 wins and 1.2 points per game; both teams have conceded 6 goals in that period, but Pittsburgh has no clean sheets away (0%). Additionally, Pittsburgh fail to score in 40% of away games versus 25% of hosts’ matches without a goal, and their away loss rate is 60% compared to 25% for Louisville, therefore I assign a higher probability to a home win.

Both teams have high seasonal BTTS rates: Louisville City 67% and Pittsburgh 60%, averaging 63.5% versus the league average of 55%, so historically both sides score frequently. Louisville averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per match, Pittsburgh has 1.0 goals for and 1.8 against, giving a combined average of 2.67 goals (close to the league 2.72) which favors Goal/Goal. In the last 5 matches Louisville has BTTS 80% with xG for 1.83 and xG against 1.49, while Pittsburgh has BTTS 40% with xG for 1.15 and xG against 1.26; nevertheless Pittsburgh concedes 1.8 goals seasonally, increasing the likelihood of conceding. Both teams show 0% clean sheet expected seasonally, and shots on target stats of 3.0 (Louisville) and 3.8 (Pittsburgh) with conversion 17% vs 11% indicate Louisville is more efficient with fewer shots, but both teams create chances. Considering the seasonal 67%/60%, last-5 80%/40% and Pittsburgh’s 1.8 goals conceded, I tip BTTS - Yes at 70% versus 30% for No.

Statistical analysis indicates a high probability of Over 1.5 goals: Louisville City averages 1.67 goals scored and concedes 1.33, Pittsburgh scores 1.00 and concedes 1.80. Season rates for matches Over 1.5 are 67% (Louisville) and 80% (Pittsburgh), averaging ~74%. In the last 5 matches average xG are 1.83 for Louisville and 1.15 for Pittsburgh, with xG conceded 1.49 (Louisville) and 1.26 (Pittsburgh); after weighting these figures I project 1.38 xG for the home side and 1.33 xG for the away side (total 2.71). Both teams frequently allow BTTS: 67% for the home team and 60% for the away team, and season Over 2.5 rates are 67% and 60% respectively, translating to an estimated probability of Over 2.5 around 64%. At the same time Over 3.5 is unlikely — season Over 3.5 is 33% (Louisville) and 20% (Pittsburgh), so I assess Over 3.5 at ~27% and Under 3.5 at ~73%. The strongest signal from the data is therefore the over on the 1.5 line (pick: Over 1.5), based on combined goals and xG metrics (1.38–1.33, total 2.71).

Louisville City led at the break in 67% of matches and scores an average of 1.0 goals by half-time, having kept a clean sheet at the break in all of their games (100%), which strongly supports the home side leading after 45 minutes. The hosts win 67% of fixtures and average 1.67 home goals per game, whereas Pittsburgh have only a 20% win rate and average 1.0 goals per game, so retaining the home lead is statistically likely. Additionally, Louisville have scored 2 goals in the 0–15 minute window and exhibit a higher shot conversion rate (17% vs. the visitors’ 11%) and average 3.0 shots on target per match, increasing the chance of an early takeover. Although the visitors’ xG is 1.27 versus the hosts’ 1.11, the away side average only 0.2 points at half-time and concede on average 1.0 goal before the break, therefore the strongest signal from the data is the 1/1 Half-Time/Full-Time scenario.