Louletano vs Lusitano Évora 1911: match statistics

Home and away data suggest a very evenly matched contest, although Louletano have a clear defensive problem: they concede an average of 3 goals at home, while opponents create chances worth 2.44 xG against them. Lusitano Évora are yet to concede away from home, recording a 100% clean-sheet rate, while allowing just 0.62 xG per match. However, the visitors are failing to convert their advantage in chance creation, as despite averaging 15 shots, 6 shots on target and 1.56 xG away from home, they have yet to score on the road. Louletano are in better overall form, picking up 8 points from their last 5 matches compared with Lusitano’s 4, but their only home appearance ended in defeat. A draw appears the most likely outcome, with a low-scoring result possible, as the visitors’ solid defense could neutralise the hosts, while their away finishing remains non-existent.

The strongest signal for BTTS - No comes from Lusitano Évora 1911’s defensive record: in the season data, they have kept a clean sheet in 100% of away matches, while their average xG conceded is just 0.62. Louletano average only 1.0 goal at home, register 2.5 shots on target per match, and have failed to score in half of their games. The visitors do create plenty of chances, averaging 1.56 xG and 6.0 shots on target, but their seasonal away goals average stands at 0.0, increasing the risk of a one-sided result. The visitors’ season BTTS rate is also 0%, compared with 50% for Louletano and 47% for the league as a whole. Therefore, the more likely scenario is that at least one team will fail to score.

Lusitano Évora have very solid defensive metrics: they concede just 0.62 xG on average, have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their matches so far, and have conceded only 2 goals. Louletano generate 1.23 xG on average, but against such a tight defense, their projected goal tally drops to around 0.90. The visitors are more active in attack, averaging 15 shots and 6 shots on target compared with the hosts’ 10.5 and 2.5, respectively, but they have scored only 0.6 goals per game across their last 5 matches. In the teams’ last five appearances, matches featuring at least 3 goals accounted for just 40% in each case, while the league average of 2.47 goals also does not point to a four-goal game. The strongest edge is therefore on under 3.5, as the projected total of 2.05 goals leaves a clear safety margin below the line.

Louletano are in better form: across their last five matches, they averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 points, compared with Lusitano’s 0.6 goals and 0.8 points. The hosts led at the break in 60% of those matches and did not lose any first half, while the visitors never went into half-time ahead and were behind in 40% of their games. Louletano’s advantage before the break is also supported by their defensive record: they conceded no first-half goals in their last five appearances, whereas Lusitano conceded an average of 0.6 goals before half-time. After the interval, the hosts averaged 0.8 goals, while the visitors managed only 0.4, supporting the likelihood of Louletano maintaining their established lead. Although the visitors’ xG stands at 1.56 compared with 1.23 for the hosts, their 0% shooting efficiency in the seasonal data and 100% of matches without scoring support a scenario in which Louletano lead at half-time and win the match, corresponding to an HT/FT 1/1 outcome.