Louletano vs União Santarém: match statistics

Louletano sit 4th, while União Santarém are 9th. The hosts’ season record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, compared with the visitors’ 0 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats. The hosts are clearly in better form: they have won 3 of their last five matches and scored 7 goals, whereas the visitors have failed to win any of their last five games and conceded as many as 11 goals. União Santarém have lost both of their away matches so far, have not scored a single goal and have conceded an average of 3.5 goals per game. Louletano average 1 goal at home but should be able to exploit the visitors’ defensive weakness, with União Santarém allowing opponents an xG of 1.73 while recording just 0.80 xG themselves. The hosts are not flawless defensively either, as their xG against stands at 1.61, so a draw remains a realistic alternative. However, the advantage in form and the visitors’ scoring problems point towards a home win (1).

The “No” pick is primarily supported by União Santarém’s extremely poor scoring record: the visitors average 0.0 goals per game this season, have failed to score in 100% of their matches, and have a BTTS rate of 0%. In their last five matches, Santarém improved only to 0.6 goals per game, while Louletano conceded an average of just 1.0 goal during this period. The hosts are clear favorites to score, as they create an average of 1.30 xG against 1.73 xG conceded by their opponents, while União Santarém concede as many as 3.5 goals on average. At the same time, Louletano have scored only 0.5 goals per game this season and failed to score in 50% of their matches, so a one-sided, low-scoring result is also possible. BTTS occurs in 43% of league matches, while both teams have recorded it in only 40% of their respective last five games, further strengthening the scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

Louletano have averaged 1.4 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while União Santarém have conceded as many as 2.2 goals per game during this period, which significantly strengthens the outlook for the home side’s goals. The hosts create an average of 1.37 xG, while the visitors allow opponents 1.32 xG, resulting in a projected goal tally of around 1.55. União Santarém have scored just 0.6 goals per game in their last five appearances, but their 1.14 xG and Louletano’s average of 1.0 goals conceded indicate a realistic chance of a response. The Over 1.5 goals line has the edge, as the projected total of 2.40 goals is above this threshold, while matches involving both teams have ended Over 2.5 goals in only 40% of their last five games.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Louletano win at full-time, as the hosts were drawing at the break in 60% of their last five matches and did not lose any first half. During the same period, Louletano conceded an average of 0.0 goals before half-time, while União Santarém scored just 0.2 goals and were losing at half-time in 60% of their matches. After the break, the hosts’ advantage should increase: Louletano won the second half in 60% of their recent matches, while the visitors lost it in 40%. The overall match form also clearly favors the hosts, who won three of their last five matches and scored an average of 1.4 goals, compared with zero wins for União Santarém and an average of 2.2 goals conceded by the visitors.