Ludogorets II vs Spartak Pleven: match statistics

Ludogorets II holds a clear home advantage: the hosts average 2.0 goals per home match, record xG 1.82 and have a positive home goal difference of +9. Spartak Pleven average just 0.67 goals per away match with xG 1.12 and carry a negative away goal difference of -10, indicating issues converting chances on the road. The quality gap in chance creation is notable — Ludogorets averages 14.73 shots and 8.33 on target per game (conversion 14%), while Spartak averages 7.87 shots and 3.73 on target (conversion 8%) and fail to score in 53% of away matches. Defensively the picture is mixed: the hosts concede 1.4 goals at home versus 1.33 conceded by Spartak away, but the visitors have a substantially higher clean sheet rate on the road (33% vs 7%), which gives them a chance to make the game difficult. Considering Ludogorets’ 47% home win rate versus Spartak’s mere 13% away win rate, plus the superiority in possession (53% vs 43%) and chance creation, I predict a home victory.

Ludogorets II at home averages 1.63 goals and has a season BTTS rate of 56%, while Spartak Pleven on the road scores only 0.67 goals on average and has a 33% BTTS. Spartak fail to score in 53% of their away games, and Ludogorets fail to score in 19% of home matches, so a simple independent estimate (81%×47%) yields only about a 38% chance that both teams score. However, in the last 5 matches both sides produced BTTS at 60% and the most recent five games delivered averages of 1.8 goals for the home side and 2.0 for the visitors, indicating a short-term offensive uptick. Additionally Spartak’s attacking xG is 1.12, but opponents create on average 1.8 xG against them, and the visitors’ shot conversion rate is only 8% versus the home side’s 16%, which suggests that although they generate chances they may not convert them. Taking into account Spartak’s season 53% frequency of not scoring, season BTTS 56% vs 33%, and the last 5 matches BTTS at 60%, the 'no' scenario looks more likely — I assess BTTS at 40% (Yes) vs 60% (No).

The model forecasts a total of approximately 2.83 goals (1.57 for Ludogorets II vs 1.26 for Spartak Pleven), calculated from xG: 1.33 xG for the home side versus 1.8 xG conceded by the away side, and 1.12 xG for the away side versus 1.4 xG conceded by the home side. Ludogorets II averages 1.63 goals with 10.0 shots and 5.31 shots on target with a 16% conversion, while Spartak averages 0.67 goals with 7.87 shots and 3.73 shots on target with an 8% conversion, indicating a clear offensive edge for the hosts. Seasonal percentages show the home team has 56% of matches Over 2.5 goals and 81% Over 1.5, whereas the away team records 33% and 67% respectively, which favors the Over 1.5 line. A Poisson distribution with λ=2.83 yields roughly a 77% chance of Over 1.5, about 54% for Over 2.5 and approximately 31% for Over 3.5, making Over 1.5 the strongest signal. Additionally, in the last 5 matches both teams combined have scored 19 goals (home 9, away 10) and each side has conceded 5 goals, which corroborates a propensity for results Over 1.5 goals.

The hosts hold a clear advantage in the first half: on average 0.94 goals at the break versus 0.33 for Spartak Pleven, and they lead at the break in 38% of matches compared to 13% for the visitors. Over the season Ludogorets II score 1.63 goals per match with an average of 1.44 points per match, while Spartak Pleven has 0.67 goals and 0.8 points per match, translating into 44% home wins versus 13% away. The hosts’ attack also looks stronger in terms of xG and offensive metrics: hosts’ xG 1.33 versus 1.12, an average of 5.31 shots on target versus 3.73, and a conversion rate of 16% versus 8% for the visitors. From these data the most likely scenario is Ludogorets II leading at half-time and winning the match (1/1) — I assign it a 32% probability, while a draw at half-time and a home win (X/1) receives 15%. The visitors leading at the break occurs less often (visitors lead at the break in 25% of matches), so scenarios with their final win are less certain (2/2 19%, 2/X 4%).