Ludogorets vs CSKA 1948 Sofia: match statistics

Ludogorets holds the edge and I back the home win. This season they have scored 54 goals versus CSKA’s 45; in the last 5 matches both teams registered 4 wins and 1 draw, averaging 2.6 points per game, with Ludogorets scoring 13 and conceding 2 in that period, while CSKA have 12 scored and 3 conceded. The hosts generate substantially more high-quality chances: average xG at home is 2.43 versus 1.50 for CSKA away, and shot volume 19.38 vs 11.31 (on target 7 vs 4.69) confirms offensive dominance, despite CSKA having higher shot conversion (14% vs the hosts’ 10%). Ludogorets also shows superior home defense (on average 0.69 goals conceded per game and 46% clean sheets) and a lower share of matches without scoring (8% vs 15%), while CSKA have conceded 28 goals this season versus the hosts’ 19. Given the higher possession (66% vs 56%), the xG advantage and created chances, I assess probabilities as: Home win 60%, Draw 20%, Away win 20%.

Season data indicate a moderately high probability of BTTS - Yes: Ludogorets has BTTS in 57% of home matches, CSKA 1948 has BTTS in 46% of away fixtures, and the league average is 44%. CSKA rarely fail to score — they were goalless in 15% of their matches (i.e., they score in 85% of games), while simultaneously keeping a clean sheet in 46% of matches, which sends conflicting signals (they either score or keep a clean sheet). xG indicates offensive balance: Ludogorets xG for 1.51 vs xG against CSKA 1.33, and CSKA xG for 1.50 vs xG against Ludogorets 1.25 — both teams generate around 1.4–1.5 xG and have a realistic goal-scoring potential. However, in the last 5 matches BTTS occurred in only 40% of cases for both sides, and Ludogorets scored 13 and conceded 2 in those 5 matches (0.4 conceded per game), while CSKA scored 12 and conceded 3 (0.6), indicating recent games more often ended in one-sided dominance than mutual scoring. Considering season goal averages 1.71 for Ludogorets vs 1.62 for CSKA and season totals of 54 and 45 goals, with xG ~1.5 and CSKA’s clear-sheet rate of 46%, I rate BTTS 'Yes' at 60% vs 40% for 'No' — recommendation: 'Yes' as more likely, though with moderate caution.

Seasonal data show Ludogorets matches finish Over 1.5 goals in 71% of cases and CSKA 1948 in 69%, providing strong support for Over 1.5. The xG-based model (1.51 xG for Ludogorets and 1.50 xG for CSKA with xG against 1.25 and 1.33) yields expected 1.42 goals for the home side and 1.38 for the away side, total 2.80 goals. In the last 5 matches Ludogorets averaged 2.6 goals, CSKA 2.4 goals, and both teams have 60% of matches Over 2.5 in that period, which pushes the probability of Over 2.5 to around 62%. Over 3.5 is much less likely: seasonal shares are 36% for the home side and 15% for the away side, and the projected xG total of 2.80 is clearly below 3.5, so I assess Over 3.5 at about 30%. Therefore the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is Over 1.5 (recommendation: Over 1.5).

Key first-half statistics favor CSKA 1948: the visitors led at the break in 54% of their matches, compared to Ludogorets’ 36%. Additionally, CSKA have kept a HT clean sheet in 77% of games versus 50% for the home side, increasing the likelihood of the visitors holding a lead at the break (often 0-1), despite Ludogorets scoring more in the 0–15 minute window (5 vs 2). Over the full match CSKA also looks stronger: season points per game 2.0 vs 1.93 and a higher win rate 62% vs 57%, while conceding fewer goals on average 0.85 per match compared to 1.21 for Ludogorets. The xG of both teams is almost identical (1.51 for Ludogorets vs 1.50 for CSKA), but the visitors perform better in the second half (points per game in the second half 1.77 vs 1.36), which supports maintaining or extending a lead after the break. Consequently the most likely HT/FT scenario is 2/2, assigned a 34% probability; alternatives are a draw at half-time with a later away win (X/2 17%) or a home win after leading at the break (1/1 15%).