Ludogorets vs Levski Sofia: match statistics

The stronger argument for Levski is form: in the last 5 matches they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss and average 2.0 points per game, while Ludogorets over the same period have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses and only 0.8 points per game. Over the season Levski have 24 wins and scored 68 goals versus Ludogorets’ 18 wins and 59 goals, indicating greater consistency and offensive efficiency from the visitors. In Ludogorets’ favor are their home metrics: on average 2.25 xG, 18.19 shots and 6.38 shots on target per match, and only 0.69 goals conceded per match with clean sheets in 50% of games. Levski compensate with better conversion (12% vs 10%) and solid attacking form — away they record 1.88 xG and average 1.81 goals, and in the last 5 matches scored 6 and conceded 3. Considering Levski’s advantage in form and finishing and Ludogorets’ defensive strength at home, I tip the visitors to win, although I expect a tight contest.

The analysis yields mixed signals: seasonal BTTS rates are 35% for Ludogorets and 56% for Levski (average 45.5%, league 44%), but the home side has as many as 53% clean sheets with an average of 0.59 goals conceded, while the visitors have 25% clean sheets and 0.88 goals conceded — assuming independence this gives 0.47*0.75=0.3525 i.e. ~35% chance of BTTS. Conversely, a model based on seasonal xG shows expected goals of 1.54 for the home team (xG_for 2.11 vs xG_against_away 0.97) and 1.40 for the away team (xG_for_away 1.88 vs xG_against_home 0.92), which yields (1 - e^-1.54)*(1 - e^-1.40) ≈ 59% probability of both teams scoring. The last 5 matches confirm the visitors' offensive edge: Ludogorets scored 3 goals in 5 matches (0.6/match) with last5 xG 1.19, and Levski 6 goals (1.2/match) with last5 xG 1.48, suggesting roughly a 50% chance of BTTS based on current form. Considering that xG and the visitors' current form outweigh the seasonal number of home clean sheets, I give a slight edge to the 'BTTS - Yes' scenario and assess BTTS at 55% vs 45%.

I project 1.54 expected goals for Ludogorets and 1.40 for Levski, totaling 2.94 goals. The estimate is based on xG: the hosts have xG 2.11 versus the visitors’ 1.88, and defenses concede xG 0.92 (Ludogorets) and 0.97 (Levski), so a simplified averaging yields the stated values. Seasonal metrics support a higher probability of at least two goals — Over 1.5 occurred for the hosts in 65% of matches and for the visitors in 69% (average ~67%), while Over 2.5 was 59%/56% (average ~57%). A counterpoint is Ludogorets’ high clean sheet rate (53%) and a relatively low BTTS rate for the hosts (35%), which limits the chance of very large overs; seasonal Over 3.5 is 29% for hosts and 38% for visitors (average ~34%). As a result, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (approx. 79%), Over 2.5 has a moderate edge (approx. 56%), while Over 3.5 is unlikely (approx. 34%).

The hosts led at the break in 7 of 17 matches (41%), while the score was level at half-time in 10 of 17 games (59%). The hosts concede only 0.06 goals on average by half-time, indicating a very solid first-half defense. In second halves Ludogorets scores an average of 1.59 goals, has 94% of matches with at least one goal after the break and wins the second half in 71% of cases, so many HT draws are converted into wins. At home the team wins 82% of games, posts an xG of 2.11 versus opponents’ 1.88 and averages 6.53 shots on target versus Levski’s 5.25, confirming superiority in chance creation and quality. The visitors have BTTS in 56% of matches and can score, but with 94% of hosts keeping a clean sheet at the break their impact on the first-half result is limited; therefore the strongest signal is Half-Time draw and Ludogorets Full-Time win (X/1).