Lumezzane vs Giana Erminio: match statistics

Giana Erminio hold a slight edge in current form: across their last five matches, they have scored 7 goals and collected 7 points, while Lumezzane have netted 6 goals and earned 5 points. The visitors have won 2 of their last 5 matches, compared with just 1 win for the hosts, although both teams have suffered 2 defeats and conceded 6 goals during this period. So far this season, Lumezzane have lost their only match and failed to score, whereas Giana Erminio, despite also suffering one defeat, have already found the net once. The home-and-away data remains too limited to assess the impact of venue with confidence, so a draw remains a realistic scenario; however, the visitors’ greater attacking consistency points to a narrow victory.

Recent form clearly supports goals at both ends: Giana Erminio recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, while Lumezzane did so in 40%, compared with the league average of 60%. Both teams have scored regularly during this period, with Lumezzane averaging 1.2 goals and Giana Erminio 1.4 goals per match, while each has conceded an average of 1.2 goals. Their attacking potential is confirmed by xG: the hosts created chances worth 1.74 xG, while the visitors recorded 1.26 xG, alongside high xG conceded figures of 1.66 and 1.51 respectively. In their only available home match of the season, Lumezzane scored once and conceded 2 goals, resulting in BTTS. Therefore, the more likely scenario is that both sides will get on the scoresheet.

The data from the hosts’ single home match produced a 1:2 result, so greater weight should be given to their current form over the last five fixtures. During this period, Lumezzane and Giana Erminio scored 1.2 and 1.4 goals per match, respectively, while both conceded 1.2 goals, pointing to a profile close to 2.4 total goals. However, the average xG from their last five appearances is higher for both sides: 1.74 for Lumezzane and 1.26 for the visitors, while their opponents created chances worth 1.66 and 1.51 xG against them. Despite this, the 3.5 line remains attractive for the under, as Over 2.5 goals landed in only 40% of Lumezzane’s recent matches and 60% of Giana’s, with the league average standing at 2.4 goals. A scenario with no more than three goals best reflects the evenly matched form of both teams and the expected total of 2.40 goals.

The strongest signal is a draw at half-time: in their last five matches, both teams were level after 45 minutes in 60% of games, while Giana Erminio did not trail at the break on any occasion. The visitors have shown better full-match form, winning 40% of their last five matches compared with Lumezzane’s 20%, and averaging 1.4 goals per game versus the hosts’ 1.2. After half-time, Giana Erminio average 0.8 goals, while Lumezzane average just 0.2, and the hosts concede an average of 0.8 goals in this period. Furthermore, a second-half goal was scored in all five of the visitors’ last five matches, making a balanced start and Giana Erminio’s advantage in the closing stages the most likely scenario.