Luzino vs Bałtyk Koszalin: match statistics

Luzino enter this match having won 4 of their last 5 games and scored 17 goals during that period, one more than Bałtyk Koszalin. The hosts have also shown slightly more consistent points form, averaging 2.4 points per game across their last five outings, compared with 2.0 for the visitors. Luzino conceded 6 goals in that span, while Bałtyk allowed their opponents to score 9, further strengthening the case for the home side. In the current season, Luzino won their only match so far 6:2, whereas Bałtyk started the campaign with a 0:3 defeat. The visitors are nevertheless dangerous in attack, having recorded 3 wins and 1 draw in their last five matches, so their chances remain significant. However, the advantage in form and the tighter defense tilt the balance in favor of Luzino.

The signal in favor of both sides scoring is primarily based on the last five matches: Luzino averaged 3.4 goals scored, while Bałtyk Koszalin averaged 3.2, with 1.2 and 1.8 goals conceded per match, respectively. Bałtyk recorded BTTS in 80% of those appearances, compared with 40% for Luzino, creating a mixed but still positive outlook for the “Yes” option. In addition, the league average is as high as 4.67 goals per match, with BTTS landing in 78% of fixtures, so the competition environment clearly favors open games. The risk to the pick is Bałtyk’s low recent xG of 0.67 and the fact that Luzino allowed opponents only 0.78 xG, which is why the edge for BTTS - Yes is not decisive.

The latest results of both teams point to open matches: Luzino averaged 3.4 goals across their last five games, while Bałtyk Koszalin averaged 3.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 80% of Luzino’s last five matches and in 100% of Bałtyk’s games during this period, although such high percentages warrant some caution. Luzino generated an average of 1.92 xG, while Bałtyk allowed opponents 1.19 xG, supporting the expectation of at least two home goals or a total of more than one goal. At the same time, Bałtyk generated just 0.67 xG per match, while Luzino allowed opponents 0.78 xG; therefore, the Over 1.5 goals line is clearly safer than more aggressive overs. The projected total of 2.90 goals and the league average of 4.67 goals favor Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

The strongest HT/FT option is Luzino leading at the break and winning the match, as the hosts have won 4 of their last 5 games, while Bałtyk have won 3 of 5. Luzino held the lead at half-time in 80% of those matches and averaged 1.6 goals scored before the break, conceding just 0.4; Bałtyk recorded 33% half-time leads, averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The hosts’ advantage is also evident after the interval: in their last five appearances, they averaged 1.8 goals in the second half, while the visitors averaged only 0.67 and conceded 1.33. Overall scoring form also favors Luzino, who average 3.4 goals per match compared with Bałtyk’s 3.2, while defending considerably more effectively, conceding 1.2 goals compared with 1.8. Current-season data is very limited, so some probability remains with the draw and an away win; however, recent form more clearly supports the 1/1 scenario.