Lyngby vs Hillerød: match statistics

Lyngby are the match favorites: they sit 1st with 16 wins and 62 goals this season, while Hillerød have 11 wins and 37 goals. In the last 5 matches the home side scored 13 goals and won 4 of 5, averaging 2.4 points per game, whereas the visitors have only 4 goals in five matches with a record of 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss (1.2 points per game). At home Lyngby average 2.36 goals scored and concede 0.86, register 14.86 shots with 5.79 on target and have average xG 1.78; Hillerød away average 1.38 goals scored, concede 1.54, register 11.69 shots with 4.54 on target and have xG 1.35. Additionally Lyngby keep clean sheets in 43% of home matches and have lower average xG against (1.13 vs 1.51 for Hillerød), while the visitors have only a 15% clean sheet rate on the road. Hillerød draw 46% of away games, which raises the chance of a split, however considering the home advantage in goals (62 vs 37), form (13 vs 4 goals in the last 5) and strong home metrics, I back a Lyngby win ('1').

The primary signal for BTTS is Hillerød’s very high away BTTS rate — 85% — combined with Lyngby’s moderate home BTTS rate of 50%, versus a league BTTS level of 55%, which statistically favors both teams scoring. Offensive metrics confirm both sides generate similar chances: Lyngby has 1.41 xG at home, 11.43 shots and 4.86 on target per match, while Hillerød away posts 1.35 xG, 11.69 shots and 4.54 on target; with a 12% conversion rate this represents a realistic chance of goals from both teams. Defensive data are mixed — Lyngby concedes 0.93 goals at home on average and has 36% clean sheets, whereas Hillerød concedes 1.54 goals away and only has 15% clean sheets, meaning they statistically allow opponents to score more often. The last 5 matches, however, signal caution: Lyngby recently scores 2.6 goals per game (recent xG 1.89), while Hillerød only 0.8 goals per game (recent xG 1.10), which reduces the likelihood that the visitors will respond, but does not negate the seasonal 85% BTTS profile. Considering Hillerød’s seasonal 85% away BTTS signal, comparable xG (1.41 vs 1.35) and the visitors’ low 15% clean sheets, I assign 70% to BTTS - Yes and 30% to No Goal.

Based on xG and defensive data I expect about 1.46 goals for Lyngby (attacking xG 1.41 vs xG conceded to Hillerød 1.51) and 1.32 for Hillerød (attacking xG 1.35 vs xG conceded to Lyngby 1.29), totaling 2.78 goals. A Poisson distribution for a mean of 2.78 yields ~77% chance of at least 2 goals, which aligns with seasonal over 1.5 rates: Lyngby 71% and Hillerød 85%. Signals for the 2.5 line are mixed: Lyngby has 43% of matches over 2.5, Hillerød 69%, and the league average over 2.5 is 54% — the xG-driven Poisson gives ~52% for 3+ goals, so I assess Over 2.5 at approximately 54%. The high BTTS rates (Lyngby 50%, Hillerød 85%) and shot metrics (SOT 4.86 vs 4.54, shots ~11.4 vs 11.7) support a goal-heavy scenario. Consequently the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (recommendation), since the combination of xG=2.78 and seasonal 71%/85% yields ~78% probability for Over 1.5.

I back 1/1 (Lyngby leading at half-time and winning) because the data indicate a home advantage particularly in the first half. Lyngby led at the break in 6 matches (43%) versus only 3 half-time leads for Hillerød (23%), and the home side scores on average 0.86 goals by half-time compared to 0.54 for the visitors; in the last five matches Lyngby have scored 6 goals in the first 45 minutes while Hillerød managed just 1. Additionally, Lyngby win 50% of their matches (vs 31% for Hillerød), have an 80% win rate in their last five home outings versus 20% for the visitors, and accumulate on average 1.79 points per home match compared to 1.38 for away teams. xG also favors Lyngby: xG for the home side 1.41 vs 1.35 for Hillerød, and xG against 1.29 vs 1.51 suggests a stronger home defense. Therefore I assign 1/1 the highest probability (~40%), with X/1 (20%) and X/X (18%) as alternatives due to Hillerød’s high share of half-time draws (46%).