Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva: match statistics

I back Hapoel Be'er Sheva (2) to win. Visitors have the superior season record: 63 goals scored and 27 conceded versus Maccabi 59-33, giving Hapoel a +36 goal difference compared to +26. Away, Hapoel average 17.69 shots and 7.23 on target with xG 2.18, while Maccabi at home register 15.79 shots, 5.79 on target and xG 2.00 — so the visitors create more and better chances. Defensively Hapoel concede 1.15 goals on the road (xG against 1.18) versus Maccabi conceding 1.43 at home (xG against 1.22) and Hapoel have a slightly higher clean sheet rate (31% vs 29%). Although Maccabi have won 4 of their last 5 matches and post PPG 2.4 with FTS at home 0%, the advantage in shots, xG and overall season metrics favors an away win for Hapoel.

Both teams show a high BTTS rate this season: Maccabi 60% and Hapoel 54%, and both record 80% BTTS in their last 5 matches, strongly indicating consistent mutual scoring. Average goals are 2.27 for Maccabi and 2.23 for Hapoel, with average goals conceded 0.8 and 1.15; in the last 5 matches they conceded 1.4 and 1.2 on average, so both defensive lines have recently been more vulnerable. Attacking xG is 2.20 vs 2.18, and xG against 1.07 vs 1.18, which together with shot counts of 18.9 and 17.7 and shots on target 7.07 and 7.23 and conversion rates of 12% and 13% confirms chance creation by both sides. The league averages 3.01 goals per match and has a high proportion of games over 2.5 goals (60% and 62% for home and away), therefore I recommend BTTS - Yes with a probability of 75% versus 25% for No.

I project 1.70 goals for Maccabi and 1.62 goals for Hapoel, totaling 3.32 expected goals; these values were calculated as the average of home xG (2.20) and xG conceded by the visitors (1.18), and vice versa for the visitors (2.18 and 1.07). Seasonally Maccabi scores 2.27 goals per match and Hapoel 2.23, and the rate of matches over 1.5 goals is 80% and 77% respectively, indicating a very high probability of exceeding the 1.5 threshold. The 2.5 line looks strongest: season-long Over 2.5 occurs in 60% (Maccabi) and 62% (Hapoel), while in the last 5 matches both teams recorded Over 2.5 in 80% of cases and BTTS also in 80%. Additionally, each team has averaged 2.4 goals in their last 5 matches (12 goals in 5 fixtures), giving roughly 4.8 goals per match in current form and corroborating the 'over' selection. Given the expected 3.32 goals and the seasonal and recent indicators (60–62% seasonally, 80% in the last 5), I recommend playing Over 2.5 as the best line.

I tip 1/1 as the most likely scenario: Maccabi led at the break in 67% of home matches and average 1.4 goals by half-time while conceding only 0.33 goals by the 45th minute. The hosts win 67% of matches this season and average 2.33 points per game versus the visitors' 2.15 points, which supports maintaining the lead to full-time. However, Hapoel is dangerous after the break — the visitors record 2.08 goals in second halves and score on average 1.23 goals after half-time, winning second halves in 62% of cases, so I also assign chances to a draw or turnaround (1/X 13%, 1/2 7%). I assess a half-time draw at 33% and distribute it mainly to X/1 (13%) and X/X (12%), taking into account Maccabi’s form (80% wins in the last five matches) and the fact that in 87% of their home games at least one goal was scored by half-time.