Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Petah Tikva: match statistics

Maccabi Tel Aviv is the clear favorite based on form and metrics: the hosts have scored 10 goals in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 loss) and average 2.4 points per game in this run, while Hapoel Petah Tikva have only 2 goals in five matches (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses) and 0.2 points per game. Offensive numbers also favor Maccabi – hosts average 15.47 shots and 5.67 on target versus 11.2 shots and 4.2 on target for the visitors, with average xG 1.96 for Maccabi vs 1.31 for Hapoel. The visitors’ away conversion rate (15%) is higher than the hosts’ (13%), but with more opportunities for Maccabi this still translates into more goals (1.93 vs 1.67 average per match) and 0% scoreless matches for the hosts versus 20% for the visitors. Defensively the hosts concede 1.33 goals at home on average, the visitors 1.73 away, which together with superior possession (57% vs 51%) and a higher league position (3rd vs 6th) gives Maccabi the advantage.

I forecast BTTS - Yes — key signals include Hapoel’s season BTTS rate of 67% and the league average BTTS 56%, indicating matches in this league frequently finish Goal/Goal. Maccabi have scored 10 goals in their last 5 matches (2.0 per match) and carry a 60% BTTS in form, while their recent xG 1.32 shows the home side are creating chances. Hapoel score 1.67 goals seasonally with a season xG of 1.31, but in the last 5 matches their output dropped to 0.4 goals per match, reducing their likelihood to score. Both teams concede at seasonal rates of 1.27 (Maccabi) and 1.73 (Hapoel), and recent xG against of 1.61 and 2.17 respectively further support goals from both sides. Despite Hapoel’s poorer recent form, the advantage in seasonal BTTS metrics (67% for Hapoel vs 47% for Maccabi) combined with the home side’s offensive form makes the BTTS - Yes scenario stronger.

I back Over 1.5 because both teams show high seasonal rates: Maccabi 67% of matches over 1.5 goals and Hapoel 87%, average 77% — adjusting for form I estimate 82%. Based on xG: Maccabi attack 1.42 and Hapoel defense concedes 1.80 xG, yielding an expected ~1.61 goals for the home side; likewise 1.31 xG for Hapoel and 1.46 xG against Maccabi give ~1.39 for the visitors, total 3.00 goals. Form supports the goal risk: Maccabi scored 10 goals in the last 5 matches (avg. 2.0), while Hapoel has only 2 goals in the last 5 (avg. 0.4) and conceded 9 (avg. 1.8), which favors a higher home score. Shots are comparable (avg. 11.33 vs 11.2, SOT 4.27 vs 4.2), and Hapoel has a higher conversion 15% vs 11% for Maccabi, which keeps a real chance for Over 2.5 (I estimate 63%) despite the visitors’ temporary dip in form; I assess Over 3.5 at 44%.

The most likely scenario is 1/1 – the home team leads at the break and wins the match. Supporting this selection is Maccabi’s form: in the last five matches they have an 80% win rate (4 of 5), while Hapoel has a 0% win rate (0 of 5). Maccabi scores an average of 1.2 goals by half-time in the last five games versus 0.2 for the visitors (1.2 vs 0.2), and over the season they keep a clean sheet at half-time in 73% of matches versus 53% for Hapoel, which increases the likelihood of a lead at the break. Over the full distance the numbers also favor the hosts from the last five matches: the home side registers 2.4 points and 2.0 goals per match, while the visitors have 0.2 points and 0.4 goals (2.4 vs 0.2; 2.0 vs 0.4). Additionally, the hosts’ xG is 1.42 versus 1.31 for the visitors, and the visitors’ xG against is 1.8 compared with 1.46 against the hosts, which suggests better expected chances for Maccabi.