Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Haifa: match statistics

Maccabi Tel Aviv holds a clear statistical edge: at home they average 2.06 goals per match and record 5.88 shots on target, while Maccabi Haifa average 1.19 goals and 4.81 shots on target away. The hosts are also more efficient — shot conversion rate is 13% versus 8% for Haifa, and Tel Aviv have no home matches without a goal (0% such games) versus 38% of Haifa’s away fixtures without scoring. In the last 5 matches Tel Aviv scored 11 goals and posted a 3-1-1 record (an average of 2.0 points per game), whereas Haifa scored 6 goals and are 2-0-3 (1.2 points per game) and conceded 9 goals compared to the hosts’ 6 conceded. Supporting the home advantage are the xG figures: Tel Aviv have home xG 2.02 with xG against 1.18, while Haifa away xG is 1.82 with xG against 1.42, indicating higher quality of chances created by the hosts. Considering Tel Aviv’s 63% home win rate versus Haifa’s 25% away win rate and the difference in goal differential (+13 vs -2), I favor a home win.

I back BTTS - Yes because seasonal and league indicators point to a high probability of both teams scoring: Maccabi Tel Aviv has BTTS at home in 56% of matches, the league records 55% BTTS, and the hosts’ last 5 home games show 60% BTTS. The home side averages 2.31 goals per game and 5.5 shots on target, while Haifa concedes on average 1.31 goals season-wide (2.31 vs 1.31; 5.5 vs 4.81), which increases the chance of Tel Aviv scoring. Haifa, however, has a seasonal BTTS of only 44% and 40% in the last 5 matches, and their goals average is 1.19 with a low shot conversion of 8%, lowering the real probability of their scoring. Crucially, both teams have identical average xG of 1.82, and the hosts concede 1.25 xG, so statistically Haifa is creating chances (xG 1.82 vs conceded 1.25) and has a realistic opportunity to score despite poor conversion. Considering the hosts’ offensive advantage (2.31 goals and 15% conversion) and league/home BTTS figures around 55–60%, the signal for Yes (62%) is stronger than for No (38%).

I expect around 3.16 total goals: expected_goals_home ≈1.62 and expected_goals_away ≈1.54, calculated as the average of attacking xG and opponent defensive xG (home attack xG 1.82 vs away defense xG 1.42; away attack xG 1.82 vs home defense xG 1.25). Maccabi Tel Aviv scores 2.31 goals per game on average and has 75% of home matches over 2.5 goals; additionally they convert shots to goals at 15% versus M. Haifa’s 8%, which increases the likelihood of a higher goal count. Seasonal >1.5 rates are 81% for the home side and 75% for the away side, and the league averages 2.96 goals per game — hence a very high probability of Over 1.5 (~94%). Over 2.5 is also a strong signal (~72%) given 75% of home matches >2.5 and 80% Over 2.5 in Haifa’s last 5 games, whereas Over 3.5 is less certain (Over ~44%) because the expected total of 3.16 is below 3.5 and the away side has only 31% of seasonal matches >3.5.

Maccabi Tel Aviv are the favorites: the hosts average 2.31 goals per game versus 1.19 for Maccabi Haifa, and the home win rate is 56% compared to 25% for the visitors. Tel Aviv particularly dominate in the first half — they held the lead at the break in 9 matches (56%), averaging 1.00 goals by halftime versus 0.44 for the visitors while conceding only 0.31 goals before the break. Although the teams’ xG is similar (1.82 vs 1.82), the hosts convert chances more efficiently (conversion rate 15% vs 8%), which increases the likelihood they will capitalize on and maintain a lead. In the second half Tel Aviv also show strong activity — 94% of their matches feature at least one goal after the break, and the hosts have scored 9 goals in minutes 46–60 and 11 goals in minutes 76–90; therefore the Half-Time/Full-Time scenario of leading at the break and winning the match (1/1) appears the most probable.