Mačva Šabac vs IMT Novi Beograd: match statistics

IMT Novi Beograd are top of the table and have won all 3 league matches so far, while Mačva Šabac have lost all 3 games and sit 14th. The visitors are in excellent form: they have recorded 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, scoring 9 goals and conceding just 2, whereas the hosts have lost 4 times over the same period and conceded 12 goals. At home, Mačva concede as many as 3 goals per match on average, with an xG against of 2.05, and have failed to keep a single clean sheet. IMT have won 100% of their away matches so far, averaging 1.5 goals scored and conceding just 0.5 goals per game. In addition, the visitors create more danger, averaging 14 shots and 6 on target compared with Mačva’s 10 shots and 2 on target, which clearly highlights their superiority.

The strongest signal for BTTS - No comes from Mačva’s very weak attack: they have scored an average of just 0.4 goals in their last 5 matches, with an xG of 0.90. IMT are simultaneously in excellent defensive form, conceding only 0.4 goals per match and just 2 goals in total across their five most recent games. BTTS landed in only 20% of Mačva’s last five matches and 40% of IMT’s fixtures, compared with the league-wide average of 37%. The hosts do have a high average home xG of 3.04, but their data from the last five appearances and 100% clean sheets in their current home matches point to a small and uneven sample. IMT should have a good chance of scoring, as Mačva have recently conceded 2.4 goals per match, but it is more likely that at least one team—primarily the hosts—will fail to find the net.

Recent form clearly points against a very high-scoring outcome: Mačva have scored only 0.4 goals per match over their last 5 games, while IMT have conceded just 0.4 goals per game during the same period. The hosts also have a low average xG across their last five appearances, at 0.90, while IMT’s defensive xG allowed to opponents stands at 1.29. The visitors are more effective going forward, averaging 1.8 goals and an xG of 1.75 in their last 5 matches, but Mačva have conceded an average of 2.4 goals, which primarily raises the projection for one side rather than suggesting an open, high-scoring game. Only 40% of the teams’ last five matches went Over 2.5 goals, compared with a league average of 2.53 goals per match. The projected total of 2.43 goals gives a clear betting edge to Under 3.5 goals.

Recent form clearly favors IMT Novi Beograd: the visitors have collected 13 points from their last five matches, winning four, while Mačva Šabac have lost four of their last five and earned just three points. Before half-time, the hosts have failed to score in any of their last five outings, conceding an average of 1.0 goal and trailing at the break in 60% of matches. By contrast, IMT led at half-time in 80% of their games, scoring an average of 0.8 goals before the interval. The disparity in quality is equally evident over the full 90 minutes: Mačva have recently averaged just 0.4 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per match, compared with 1.8 scored and only 0.4 conceded by IMT. The visitors have kept a clean sheet before half-time in each of their last five matches and concede only 0.4 goals after the break, further supporting the scenario of an IMT lead at half-time followed by a full-time victory (2/2).