Madura United vs Borneo: match statistics

The favorite is Borneo (rank 2) against Madura United (rank 16), supported by season records — Borneo has 17 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses, while Madura has 4 wins, 8 draws and 13 losses. In the last 5 matches the visitors scored 12 goals and average 1.6 points per game, whereas the hosts scored 6 goals and average 0.4 points per game, clearly indicating Borneo’s superior form. In terms of quality of chances, Madura’s home xG is 1.46 and Borneo’s away xG is 1.38, but the visitors are far more clinical — 1.67 goals per game and a 14% conversion rate versus 1.08 goals and a 9% conversion for Madura, and only 8% of Borneo’s matches are goalless compared to 42% for Madura. Defensively the differences are smaller (Madura concedes 1.5 goals at home vs Borneo conceding 1.42 away), however the overall goal records 24–42 for Madura versus 48–25 for Borneo and Borneo’s positive away goal difference (+3) favor the visitors, therefore I tip a Borneo win.

I back BTTS - Yes with an estimated probability of 78% versus 22% for No Goal. The primary argument is strong BTTS form: Borneo has 67% this season and 100% in the last 5 matches, while Madura has 54% this season and 80% in the last 5. Additionally, Madura concedes an average of 3.0 goals in the last 5 (15 conceded), whereas Borneo scores an average of 2.4 goals in that period (12 scored), which favors goal exchange. xG figures also support goals from both sides: Madura xG_for 1.78 versus Borneo xG_against 1.67, and Borneo xG_for 1.38 versus Madura xG_against 1.33. This is complemented by a league BTTS level of 55% and Madura’s advantage in shots (15.46 vs 11.58 and 5.69 vs 4.33 on target), therefore the 'Yes' scenario appears strongest.

Expected goals based on xG are approximately 1.73 for Madura and 1.36 for Borneo, totalling 3.09 goals, indicating high scoring potential. A Poisson distribution for a sum of 3.09 yields probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) ~81%, at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) ~60% and at least 4 goals (Over 3.5) ~37%. Seasonal data confirm this direction: Madura scores on average 2.15 goals at home, Borneo 1.67 away, and the percentage of matches over 1.5 is 69% and 83% respectively; BTTS is 54% and 67%. In the last 5 matches Madura conceded on average 3.0 goals, and Borneo scored on average 2.4 goals; both teams had Over 2.5 in their last 5 matches at rates of 100% and 80% respectively, which further increases the chances of many goals. For these reasons the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (recommended), while Over 2.5 also shows a moderate edge (~60%).

Madura United has a clear seasonal advantage: they score an average of 2.15 goals per home match with an xG of 1.78 and register an 85% win rate at home, while Borneo concedes an average of 1.42 goals per match with an xG against of 1.67. At half-time the home side led in 46% of matches (6 instances), scoring on average 0.69 goals and conceding only 0.15, which increases the likelihood of Madura having the lead at the break. However, Madura’s last 5 matches show form 'ddlll' with a 0% win rate and an average of 0.4 goals at half-time, whereas Borneo’s last 5 include a 40% win rate and 1.0 goals at half-time, which reduces confidence and raises the risk of a first-half draw. Madura also produces more shots (15.46 vs 11.58) and more shots on target (5.69 vs 4.33), therefore—if seasonal trends hold—the most probable scenario is the home team leading at half-time and winning at full-time (HT/FT 1/1 ~37%), with significant alternatives being draw/draw ~17% and draw at half-time, Madura win at full-time ~13%.