Maghreb Fès vs Hassania Agadir: match statistics

Maghreb Fès (1st) holds a clear superiority in the table and goal differential: 24 scored and 8 conceded this season versus Hassania Agadir (11th) with 13 scored and 20 conceded. Form trends confirm the gap — in the last 5 matches the hosts have 7 goals for and 3 against, averaging 2.2 points per game, while the visitors have 3 scored and 6 conceded with an average of 0.4 pts. At home Maghreb features an impressive defense: 0.43 goals conceded per match and 71% clean sheets, and they also create better chances (xG 1.34 and 4.14 shots on target per game) than Hassania away (xG 0.98, 3.00 shots on target). The efficiency gap is significant — the hosts convert at 20% versus the visitors’ 12%, and the visitors fail to score in 38% of away matches, which increases the probability of a home win and a possible clean sheet. Considering 71% home win rate and 0% home losses for Maghreb at their stadium combined with the visitors’ poor form (0 wins in the last 5 and 50% away losses), I predict a Maghreb Fès victory.

In my assessment 'No' is more likely — I assign a 58% probability to no BTTS and 42% to BTTS (Goal/Goal). In the last 5 matches the home team averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded (7 scored and 3 conceded in 5 matches), while the away team averaged 0.6 scored and 1.2 conceded (3 scored and 6 conceded), indicating the visitors struggle to score. xG-based values over the last 5 matches: xG 1.33 for the home side versus 0.86 for the away side; a simple Poisson model yields roughly a 42% chance that both teams score, i.e. below 50%. Seasonal metrics also do not strongly support BTTS — home BTTS is 38% versus 50% for the visitors, and seasonal goals averages are 0.75 for home and 0.88 for away against a league average of 2.14 goals per match. Additionally, the away side have a higher shot conversion rate of 12% versus 8% for the home team but take fewer shots (7.25 vs 9.13) and the away seasonal xG is 0.98, so despite better conversion their lower creativity increases the likelihood that at least one side will fail to score (No Goal, clean sheet expected).

Aggregate xG suggests 1.21 goals for Maghreb Fès and 1.13 for Hassania Agadir, totaling 2.34 expected goals. A Poisson model with λ=2.34 yields roughly a 68% chance of Over 1.5, about 42% for Over 2.5 and about 21% for Over 3.5. Seasonal indicators strengthen the Over 1.5 signal: both teams have 75% of matches with at least 2 goals, and in the last 5 matches Maghreb Fès scored 7 goals (1.4 avg) versus Hassania’s 3 goals (0.6 avg); additionally attack xG 1.19 vs 0.98 and shots per game 9.13 vs 7.25 favor greater home activity. On the other hand, the absence of 4+ goal matches this season (seasonOver35 0% for both) and moderate seasonOver25 rates of 38%/50% (home/away) make Over 3.5 unlikely (I estimate ~9%). Therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal — I assign it a 72% probability based on the combined xG of 2.34 and seasonal 75% of matches with ≥2 goals.

Average first-half goals and HT statistics indicate a home advantage: Maghreb Fès scores on average 0.63 goals by half-time versus 0.13 for Hassanii; the hosts led at the break in 2 matches (25%) while the visitors in 0 (0%). A Poisson model based on these averages yields roughly a 42% chance that Maghreb will lead at the break and about 51% for a half-time draw, whereas an away lead at half-time is below 7%. The second half, however, favors Hassania — the visitors score on average 0.75 goals after the break versus 0.13 for the hosts and have goals in 75% of their second halves (scored_2hg_avg_away=0.75, over05_2hg_percentage_away=75% vs 0.13 and 38% for the home side), so they are capable of comebacks. Nevertheless Maghreb posts higher xG (1.19 vs 0.98), more shots (9.13 vs 7.25) and better form in the last 5 matches (60% wins vs 0% for the visitors), which results in a high conversion to victory when they lead at half-time (~61%). Consequently the strongest HT/FT scenario is 1/1 (home leading at half-time and winning) — I estimate it at about 26–27%, the second strongest is X/2 at ~24%, followed by X/X at ~23%.