Maghreb Fès vs Ittihad Tanger: match statistics

Maghreb Fès holds a clear home advantage: at home they average 1.89 goals scored and concede only 0.56 goals per match (10 goals conceded this season), with a 67% home win rate and 67% clean sheets. Ittihad Tanger on the road scores 0.9 goals and concedes 1.3 goals per match (23 conceded this season) and wins only 20% of away fixtures, with 40% draws and 0% clean sheets. Both teams have similar average xG (1.3 each), but Maghreb converts far better — shot conversion 20% versus 9% for the visitors — which translates to 29 goals for the hosts versus 16 for Ittihad this season. In the last 5 matches Maghreb scored 7 goals and averages 2.0 points per game (3-1-1), while the visitors scored 5 goals, have a 1-4-0 record and 1.4 points per game. Considering the advantage in possession (58% vs 47%), more shots on target (4.11 vs 3.3) and superior defense and conversion, I forecast a home victory.

Both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 60% (Maghreb 60% vs Ittihad 60%), exceeding the league average of 50% and providing an overall tailwind for BTTS. Additionally, Ittihad has not recorded a single clean sheet this season (clean sheet 0%), and concedes on average 1.3 goals per game versus 1.0 for Maghreb, increasing the likelihood that the hosts will find the net. In the last 5 matches we have mixed signals: Maghreb has only 20% BTTS and concedes 0.6 goals on average, while Ittihad has 80% BTTS and concedes 0.8 goals, so the visitors have been more involved in Goal/Goal games recently. xG shows similar attacking potential (xG 1.28 for Maghreb vs 1.30 for Ittihad), with shots on target 2.7 vs 3.3 and higher conversion rate 9% vs 6% in favor of Ittihad, suggesting the visitors have a greater chance to score. Considering the 60% seasonal BTTS for both teams, Ittihad’s 0% clean sheets and the visitors’ recent 80% BTTS, I project BTTS - Yes at 65% and No at 35%.

Averaging xG: Maghreb’s attacking xG is 1.28, Ittihad’s attacking xG is 1.30, and xG against is 1.34 for Maghreb and 1.46 for Ittihad, yielding projected 1.37 goals for the home side and 1.32 for the visitors, i.e. a total of 2.69 expected goals. Seasonally Over 1.5 occurs frequently: 70% of Maghreb’s matches and 80% of Ittihad’s matches finish over 1.5 goals, and both teams have a BTTS rate of 60%, which strongly supports Over 1.5. In the last 5 matches Maghreb scored 7 goals (1.4 per match), Ittihad 5 goals (1.0 per match); combined average shots are 10.8 + 10.4 and shots on target 2.7 + 3.3 (total 6.0), which produces chances despite low conversion rates of 6% and 9%. Seasonal Over 2.5 rates are lower (20% for the home team and 30% for the visitors, average 25%), but a Poisson model based on total xG = 2.69 gives roughly a 50% probability of ≥3 goals, so the 2.5 line is balanced and I estimate ~51% for Over. Over 3.5 is poorly supported (seasonally 0% for Maghreb and 10% for Ittihad), therefore I recommend playing the Over at the 1.5 line as the strongest signal.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1). The home side drew at the break in 80% of their matches, and in the last 5 fixtures they recorded 3 wins out of 5 (60%) and average 2.0 points per match, which indicates an advantage after the break. Additionally, in the last 5 games the hosts averaged 1.4 goals in second halves versus 0.8 for the visitors, and the average goals scored in the second half is 1.0 vs 0.6, which favors a turnaround after the break. xG are similar (1.28 for the hosts vs 1.30 for the visitors), but the visitors have more shots on target (3.3 vs 2.7) and a higher conversion rate (9% vs 6%), therefore I also assign a significant probability of a draw after 90 minutes (22%) and a relatively low overall probability of an away win (11% in total). The draw at half-time is also supported by the high share of clean halves for the hosts at the break – 70% of such matches, which increases the chance of a goalless or low-scoring scoreline after the first 45 minutes.