Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen: match statistics
Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Mainz 05 played against Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga (Germany). The game was played on October 10, 2026. Venue: Mewa Arena. Final score: 3:4.
Recent form
Mainz 05 has 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 1.75 points per game. Bayer Leverkusen has 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, with 1.75 points per game.
Scoring records
Mainz 05 scores 2.50 goals per game and allows 1.50. Bayer Leverkusen scores 2.50 and allows 1.25. Games in this league average 3.81 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 50% of Mainz 05's games and 50% of Bayer Leverkusen's. The Over 2.5 rates are 75% and 75%, compared with league averages of 59% for BTTS and 78% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Bayer Leverkusen has the higher season xG average, 2.30 to 1.99 per game. Mainz 05 takes 18.3 shots per game, while Bayer Leverkusen takes 22.5.
First-half and second-half trends
Mainz 05 leads at halftime in 50% of its games and scores 1.50 goals per game after halftime. Bayer Leverkusen leads at halftime in 75% and scores 1.50 after halftime.
When the teams score
Mainz 05's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (5 goals). For Bayer Leverkusen, it is minutes 76-90+ (3 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Bundesliga games average 3.81 goals. Both teams score in 59% of games, and 78% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 2 previous meetings were available. The record was 0 home wins, 1 draw and 1 away win. Those games averaged 4.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Bayer Leverkusen are slight favorites thanks to their more effective away performances: they score an average of 2 goals per match on the road, while Mainz manage just 0.5 goals at home. The visitors average 25.5 shots away from home and post an xG of 2.44, compared with the hosts’ 19.5 shots and 2.08 xG at home. However, Mainz have reason for optimism: they have scored 13 goals in their last five matches, one more than Bayer, and both teams have won 3 games over that period. The visitors’ away defensive record calls for a more cautious assessment of their chances, as they concede an average of 2.5 goals per match on the road, compared with Mainz’s 1.5 at home. Bayer’s superior away attacking efficiency outweighs this risk, although a draw remains a realistic outcome.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams regularly create chances: Mainz average 2.15 xG at home, while Bayer average 2.44 xG away, pointing to goals at both ends. Mainz score an average of 3.0 goals at home, while Bayer concede 2.5 away, making a Mainz goal look particularly likely. The visitors average 2.0 goals away, although Mainz have yet to concede at home, which is the strongest argument against BTTS - Yes. However, both sides have had BTTS land in 40% of their last 5 matches, so the case for BTTS - Yes is moderate rather than compelling.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Mainz average 3.0 goals at home, while Bayer concede 2.5 away from home, which points to goals for the hosts. The visitors also have attacking potential: their away xG is 2.44, although Mainz have yet to concede at home. Over their last five matches, Mainz averaged 2.6 goals and Bayer 2.4; at least three goals were scored in 80% and 60% of those games, respectively. A forecast of 3.5 total goals supports the case for a high-scoring game, but given Mainz's strong defense, Over 1.5 goals is the safest pick, with an estimated probability of 86%.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Mainz led at the break in both of their home matches so far, scoring an average of 1.5 goals in the first half and conceding none; Bayer conceded an average of 1.0 goal before half-time in their two away matches. The hosts won both home games, scoring an average of 3.0 goals, while the visitors have yet to win away and conceded an average of 2.5 goals. Mainz’s advantage is also supported by their shots on target: 8.0 per home match compared with Bayer’s 4.5 away, which points to a potential lead being maintained after the break. The most likely scenario, therefore, is Mainz leading at the break and winning after 90 minutes. However, the advantage is not decisive: Bayer led at half-time in 4 of their last 5 matches overall, and their away xG stands at 2.44 compared with Mainz’s 2.15 at home; moreover, the home and away statistics are based on just two matches each.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Mainz 05 | Bayer Leverkusen | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 28% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Bayer Leverkusen is 20% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.5 goals / game - Mainz 05 · 1.25 goals / game - Bayer Leverkusen
Mainz 05 scores in 75% of games (3 of 4 games), while Bayer Leverkusen keeps a clean sheet in 50% (2 of 4 games).
Bayer Leverkusen scores in 100% of games (4 of 4 games), while Mainz 05 keeps a clean sheet in 50% (2 of 4 games).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Mainz 05
Over / Under - Bayer Leverkusen
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Bayer Leverkusen is 29% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.75 pts / game - Mainz 05 · 2.25 pts / game - Bayer Leverkusen
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Mainz 05 - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 50% of games and wins 50%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Bayer Leverkusen - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 75% of games and wins 50%. Sometimes gives up a halftime lead.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| 1 goal | 75% | 75% |
| 2 goals | 75% | 75% |
| 3 goals | 25% | 50% |
| Clean sheet | 50% | 50% |
| No goal | 50% | 25% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.25 | 2.25 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 50% | 75% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 50% |
| Clean sheet | 75% | 50% |
| No goal | 25% | 0% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +3 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (3 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Mainz 05
Bayer Leverkusen
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Bundesliga).
Teams vs league
| Mainz 05 | Liga | Bayer Leverkusen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 4.00 | 3.81 | • 3.75 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 59% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 75% | 78% | ▼ 75% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 24% | ▲ 50% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 75% | 86% | ▲ 100% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 75% | 86% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Bayer LeverkusenSubstitutionOn: Ignacio Ezequiél Agustín Fernández CarballoOff: Aleix García Serrano
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Mainz 05's perspective: 0 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss against Bayer Leverkusen. Games average 4.50 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
The Bundesliga match finished Mainz 05 3:4 Bayer Leverkusen. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Mainz 05 won 0, Bayer Leverkusen won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 4.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Mainz 05 score 2.50 goals per game on average and Bayer Leverkusen 2.50. The Bundesliga average is 3.81 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 78% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Mainz 05's matches and 50% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
What form are Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen in?
Over the last 5 games Mainz 05 have a 2-1-1 record (1.75 points per game) and Bayer Leverkusen 2-1-1 (1.75 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.