Mainz 05 vs Freiburg: match statistics
Mainz 05 vs Freiburg: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Mainz 05 played against Freiburg in Bundesliga (Germany). The game was played on April 12, 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Recent form
Mainz 05 has 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses over its last five games, averaging 2.20 points per game. Freiburg has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, with 0.80 points per game.
Scoring records
Mainz 05 scores 1.25 goals per game and allows 1.54. Freiburg scores 1.46 and allows 1.68. Games in this league average 3.21 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 61% of Mainz 05's games and 61% of Freiburg's. The Over 2.5 rates are 54% and 64%, compared with league averages of 59% for BTTS and 63% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Freiburg has the higher season xG average, 1.42 to 1.34 per game. Mainz 05 takes 11.3 shots per game, while Freiburg takes 12.8.
First-half and second-half trends
Mainz 05 leads at halftime in 32% of its games and scores 0.68 goals per game after halftime. Freiburg leads at halftime in 25% and scores 0.89 after halftime.
When the teams score
Mainz 05's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (8 goals). For Freiburg, it is minutes 76-90+ (10 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Bundesliga games average 3.21 goals. Both teams score in 59% of games, and 63% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 0 draws and 1 away win. Those games averaged 4.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Mainz 05 are the favorites for this matchup — the team has won 5 of their last 5 games, scoring 10 goals in that period (2.0 per game) and conceding only 2 (0.4 per game), which yields 3.0 points per game over the last five. Freiburg over their last 5 matches have a record of 3 wins and 2 losses, scoring 12 goals (2.4 per game) but conceding 6 (1.2 per game), indicating greater defensive vulnerability. Chance quality also favors Mainz — the home side’s average xG at home is 1.53 versus 1.20 xG for the visitors away, and Mainz allow opponents 1.35 xG while Freiburg concede 1.72 xG on the road. The hosts average 13.29 shots and 4.0 on target per home game, whereas Freiburg away average 11.07 shots and 3.29 on target, plus the visitors fail to score in 50% of their away matches versus 36% for the hosts. Considering Mainz’s 5 consecutive wins, better defensive record in the last five games and higher home xG, I predict a Mainz victory; I assess the probabilities as 60% for the home side, 20% for a draw and 20% for the visitors.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - Yes. Mainz posts a season BTTS rate of 79% versus Freiburg's 43%, while the league average is ~60% BTTS, supporting both teams scoring. Mainz averages 1.86 goals per match with xG 1.63 and 5.36 shots on target; Freiburg has xG 1.20 and 1.07 goals per match but concedes 2.00 goals on average (xG against 1.72), leaving Freiburg vulnerable to conceding. Last 5 matches show mixed signals: Mainz over the last 5 averages 2.0 scored and only 0.4 conceded (BTTS 40%), while Freiburg averages 2.4 scored and 1.2 conceded (BTTS 60%), so Freiburg has been scoring more recently. Considering Mainz’s xG advantage (1.63 vs 1.20), superiority in shots on target (5.36 vs 3.29) and the home side’s high season BTTS (79%), I rate BTTS - Yes at 65% vs No 35%, while remaining cautious due to Mainz’s defensive form over the last five matches (clean sheet expected more often).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Mainz scores on average 1.86 goals per game and has an xG of 1.63, while Freiburg has xG 1.20 and averages 1.07 goals per game this season. Comparing offensive xG to the opponent’s defensive values (Mainz: (1.63+1.72)/2 ≈ 1.68; Freiburg: (1.20+1.31)/2 ≈ 1.26) and adjusting by actual scoring averages, I project 1.78 goals for Mainz and 1.24 for Freiburg, totalling 3.02 expected goals. Seasonal indicators corroborate a tendency toward goal-heavy matches: Mainz has 86% of matches over 1.5, Freiburg 79%, and the league averages 3.21 goals per game with 62% Over 2.5. Mainz averages 5.36 shots on target with a 13% conversion rate, Freiburg 3.29 shots on target with a 10% conversion, so the hosts generate more high-quality chances that elevate goal potential. Given the 3.02 expected goals, the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (the most reliable option), while Over 2.5 has a moderate probability (~59%) and Over 3.5 is less likely (~34%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Mainz holds a clear advantage – scoring on average 1.86 goals per match versus Freiburg’s 1.07, winning 50% of games this season compared to just 21% for the visitors. At Half-Time Mainz averages 0.79 goals, Freiburg 0.36, and Mainz led at the break in 5 matches (36%) while Freiburg did so in only 2 (14%), which supports a lead at the break for the home side. After halftime the hosts also dominate: Mainz scores on average 1.07 goals in second halves, whereas Freiburg concedes on average 1.57 goals after the break, and in the last 5 matches Mainz has 5 wins (100%) and higher second-half points (2.6 vs 1.8). Therefore the strongest signal is 1/1 (home leading at Half-Time and winning Full-Time), which I assign approximately a 31% probability; as alternatives I mainly allocate chances to X/1 (13%) and 2/2 (17%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Mainz 05 | Freiburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Mainz 05 is 175% better for: last-5 form.
2.2 pts / game - Mainz 05 · 0.8 pts / game - Freiburg
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Freiburg is 17% better for: goals scored per game.
1.25 goals / game - Mainz 05 · 1.46 goals / game - Freiburg
Mainz 05 is 9% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.54 goals / game - Mainz 05 · 1.68 goals / game - Freiburg
Mainz 05 scores in 68% of games (19 of 28 meczów), while Freiburg keeps a clean sheet in 18% (5 of 28 meczów).
Freiburg scores in 71% of games (20 of 28 meczów), while Mainz 05 keeps a clean sheet in 11% (3 of 28 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Mainz 05
Over / Under - Freiburg
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Mainz 05 is 6% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.32 pts / game - Mainz 05 · 1.25 pts / game - Freiburg
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Mainz 05 - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 32% of games and wins 29%. Usually protects a halftime lead through the final whistle.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Freiburg - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 25% of games and wins 36%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.5 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 0% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -2 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Mainz 05
Freiburg
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Bundesliga).
Teams vs league
| Mainz 05 | Liga | Freiburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.79 | 3.21 | • 3.14 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 61% | 59% | ▲ 61% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 54% | 63% | • 64% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 11% | 23% | ▼ 18% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 82% | 76% | ▼ 64% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 89% | 85% | ▼ 82% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Mainz 05's perspective: 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss against Freiburg. Games average 4.00 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Mainz 05 vs Freiburg?
The Bundesliga match finished Mainz 05 0:1 Freiburg. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Mainz 05 vs Freiburg?
Mainz 05 score 1.25 goals per game on average and Freiburg 1.46. The Bundesliga average is 3.21 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 63% of games. Both teams score in 61% of Mainz 05's matches and 61% of Freiburg's.
What form are Mainz 05 and Freiburg in?
Over the last 5 games Mainz 05 have a 3-2-0 record (2.20 points per game) and Freiburg 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mainz 05 vs Freiburg?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.