Germany - BundesligaData current as of September 06, 2026

Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV: match statistics

Mainz 05 crest
Mainz 05
1 : 1half-time 1:0
Hamburger SV crest
Hamburger SV
155%(2.10)
X30%(3.17)
215%(3.82)
BTTSOver/UnderHT/FT
Pick: 1Lost
Pick score:Pick score — the strength of the NoFluffPicks model signal for this pick.45.18
Value:Value — how much the bookmaker price is above our estimated probability. Positive value is favorable long term.15.50%

Mainz 05 performs significantly better at home than Hamburger SV does away. The hosts have a goal difference of -1 at home, while the visitors concede an average of 1.8 goals per away game with a -12 goal difference. Mainz is in excellent form with three wins in their last five matches overall, whereas Hamburg has not won any of their last five away matches. The xG statistics also favor the hosts: 1.5 xG For compared to the guests' 1.25 xG For away. Hamburg has only a 10% away win rate and as many as 50% of their matches end without scoring a goal, which significantly reduces their chances. Considering Mainz's home advantage and Hamburg's poor away form, the hosts have a realistic chance of triumph.

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Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV: form, goals and key statistics

Game details

Mainz 05 played against Hamburger SV in Bundesliga (Germany). The game was played on February 20, 2026. Final score: 1:1.

Recent form

Mainz 05 has 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.80 points per game. Hamburger SV has 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses, with 1.80 points per game.

Scoring records

Mainz 05 scores 1.14 goals per game and allows 1.68. Hamburger SV scores 1.14 and allows 1.48. Games in this league average 3.19 goals.

BTTS and goal totals

Both teams score in 55% of Mainz 05's games and 52% of Hamburger SV's. The Over 2.5 rates are 55% and 52%, compared with league averages of 58% for BTTS and 63% for Over 2.5.

xG and shots

Hamburger SV has the higher season xG average, 1.43 to 1.32 per game. Mainz 05 takes 11.1 shots per game, while Hamburger SV takes 13.1.

First-half and second-half trends

Mainz 05 leads at halftime in 27% of its games and scores 0.64 goals per game after halftime. Hamburger SV leads at halftime in 24% and scores 0.71 after halftime.

When the teams score

Mainz 05's most productive scoring window is minutes 61-75 (6 goals). For Hamburger SV, it is minutes 76-90+ (6 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.

League scoring profile

Bundesliga games average 3.19 goals. Both teams score in 58% of games, and 63% finish with at least three goals.

Head-to-head record

Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 0 draws and 1 away win. Those games averaged 4.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.

Archived pre-match analysis

This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.

General match analysis

Mainz 05 performs significantly better at home than Hamburger SV does away. The hosts have a goal difference of -1 at home, while the visitors concede an average of 1.8 goals per away game with a -12 goal difference. Mainz is in excellent form with three wins in their last five matches overall, whereas Hamburg has not won any of their last five away matches. The xG statistics also favor the hosts: 1.5 xG For compared to the guests' 1.25 xG For away. Hamburg has only a 10% away win rate and as many as 50% of their matches end without scoring a goal, which significantly reduces their chances. Considering Mainz's home advantage and Hamburg's poor away form, the hosts have a realistic chance of triumph.

View the statistical overview

Stats by half

1 : 0
First half
0 : 1
Second half

Game stats

45Possession (%)55
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
17Shots14
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
3Shots on target5
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
1.69xG1.47
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
7Corners2
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
58Dangerous attacks32
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
16Fouls13
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
3Cards2
Mainz 05Hamburger SV

Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?

This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.

0.95Points per gamePPG - points per game.1.19
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
1.14Goals scored / game1.14
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
1.68Goals allowed / game1.48
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
1.32xG forxG - expected goals, the quality of scoring chances.1.43
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
45%Average possession47%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
3.64Shots on target / game4.81
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
9%Clean sheetsClean sheet - a match with no goal conceded.29%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
55%Both teams scoredBTTS - percentage of matches where both teams scored.52%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV

Team stats— who is more efficient?

Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.

11.14Shots per game13.14
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
3.64Shots on target4.81
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
10.2%Shot conversion8.7%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
45%Possession47%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
1.32xG for1.43
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
1.64xG against1.56
Mainz 05Hamburger SV

Shooting quality

Mainz 05: BalancedHamburger SV: Balanced
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
Accuracy (shots on target)33%37%
Chance quality (xG per shot)0.120.11
Finishing (goals per shot on target)0.310.24

xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.

* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.

Team form— who is in better shape?

Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.

Mainz 05
LWWWL
Season result split
23% W27% R50% P
Season (W-D-L)
5-6-11
0.95 pts / game · goal difference -12
Last 5 (W-D-L)
3-0-2
1.80 pts / game
Record at home (W-D-L)
3-3-5
Last 5 at home
3-1-1
LDWWW
Last 5 games - averages
Goals scored: 1.6Goals conceded: 1.6xG: 1.53Opponent xG: 1.65BTTS: 60%Over 2.5: 80%
Hamburger SV
DDDWW
Unbeaten in the last 5 games
Season result split
29% W33% R38% P
Season (W-D-L)
6-7-8
1.19 pts / game · goal difference -7
Last 5 (W-D-L)
2-3-0
1.80 pts / game
Record away (W-D-L)
1-3-6
Last 5 away
1-1-3
LLLDW
Last 5 games - averages
Goals scored: 1.4Goals conceded: 0.8xG: 1.55Opponent xG: 1.32BTTS: 40%Over 2.5: 40%

Goals— how do both teams score and concede?

How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.

Hamburger SV is 14% better for: goals allowed per game.

1.68 goals / game - Mainz 05 · 1.48 goals / game - Hamburger SV

Mainz 05 scoring profile: strong

Mainz 05 scores in 59% of games (13 of 22 meczów), while Hamburger SV keeps a clean sheet in 29% (6 of 21 meczów).

Hamburger SV scoring profile: very strong

Hamburger SV scores in 62% of games (13 of 21 meczów), while Mainz 05 keeps a clean sheet in 9% (2 of 22 meczów).

25Goals scored (season)24
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
37Goals conceded (season)31
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
2.82Average goals per game2.62
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
8Goals scored (last 5)7
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
8Goals conceded (last 5)4
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
Mainz 05
9%
Clean sheetsClean sheet - a match with no goal conceded.2 of 22 meczów
41%
No goalFailed to score - a match where the team did not score.9 of 22 meczów
Hamburger SV
29%
Clean sheetsClean sheet - a match with no goal conceded.6 of 21 meczów
38%
No goalFailed to score - a match where the team did not score.8 of 21 meczów

How often they score at least...

59%1 goal62%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
36%2 goals33%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
14%3 goals14%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
5%4 goals5%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV

How often they concede at least...

91%1 goal71%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
41%2 goals43%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
18%3 goals14%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
18%4 goals14%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV

* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.

Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?

How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.

55%
Mainz 05 - BTTSBTTS - percentage of matches where both teams scored.12 of 22 meczów
52%
Hamburger SV - BTTSBTTS - percentage of matches where both teams scored.11 of 21 meczów
58%
League average

Goal patterns

18%BTTS at half-time14%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
9%BTTS in both halves10%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
32%Scored in both halves29%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV

BTTS and goal count

41%Min. 3 goals and BTTS43%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
14%Min. 3 goals without BTTS10%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
60%BTTS - last 540%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV

Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?

See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.

Full game - team comparison (Over)

95%Min. 1 goal (Over 0.5)Over 0.5 - at least one goal in the match.81%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
77%Min. 2 goals (Over 1.5)Over 1.5 - at least two goals in the match.71%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
55%Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)Over 2.5 - at least three goals in the match.52%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
36%Min. 4 goals (Over 3.5)Over 3.5 - at least four goals in the match.33%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
9%Min. 5 goals (Over 4.5)Over 4.5 - at least five goals in the match.24%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV

Over / Under - Mainz 05

Line 0.5 (min. 1 goal)Over 0.5 - at least one goal in the match.
Over 95%Under 5%
Line 1.5 (min. 2 goals)Over 1.5 - at least two goals in the match.
Over 77%Under 23%
Line 2.5 (min. 3 goals)Over 2.5 - at least three goals in the match.
Over 55%Under 45%
Line 3.5 (min. 4 goals)Over 3.5 - at least four goals in the match.
Over 36%Under 64%
Line 4.5 (min. 5 goals)Over 4.5 - at least five goals in the match.
Over 9%Under 91%

Over / Under - Hamburger SV

Line 0.5 (min. 1 goal)Over 0.5 - at least one goal in the match.
Over 81%Under 19%
Line 1.5 (min. 2 goals)Over 1.5 - at least two goals in the match.
Over 71%Under 29%
Line 2.5 (min. 3 goals)Over 2.5 - at least three goals in the match.
Over 52%Under 48%
Line 3.5 (min. 4 goals)Over 3.5 - at least four goals in the match.
Over 33%Under 67%
Line 4.5 (min. 5 goals)Over 4.5 - at least five goals in the match.
Over 24%Under 76%

1st half

82%Min. 1 goal before half-time67%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
41%Min. 2 goals before half-time29%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
9%Min. 3 goals before half-time10%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV

2nd half

86%Min. 1 goal after half-time71%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
41%Min. 2 goals after half-time52%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
18%Min. 3 goals after half-time19%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV

Game halves— when do the teams score more often?

How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.

Mainz 05 - half-time state
27% leading32% draw41% trailing
Hamburger SV - half-time state
24% leading43% draw33% trailing

Before half-time (1st half)

1.14Points per game (1st half)1.14
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
0.5Goals scored (1st half)0.43
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
0.86Goals conceded (1st half)0.67
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
1.36Average goals (1st half)1.1
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
45%Clean sheet before half-time52%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
55%No goal before half-time67%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV

After half-time (2nd half)

1.18Points per game (2nd half)1
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
0.64Goals scored (2nd half)0.71
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
0.82Goals conceded (2nd half)0.81
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
1.45Average goals (2nd half)1.52
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
36%Clean sheet after half-time38%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV
55%No goal after half-time43%
Mainz 05Hamburger SV

Mainz 05 - second-half results

32% W23% R45% P
25
Half-time points
11
Half-time goals
-8
Goal difference (1st half)
26
Second-half points
-4
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.14
PPG before half-time
Lead holding85%

Leads at halftime in 27% of games and wins 23%. Usually protects a halftime lead through the final whistle.

Defense after halftime-0.0

Defense stays consistent across the full game.

Hamburger SV - second-half results

14% W57% R29% P
24
Half-time points
9
Half-time goals
-5
Goal difference (1st half)
21
Second-half points
-2
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.14
PPG before half-time
Lead holding121%

Leads at halftime in 24% of games and wins 29%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.

Defense after halftime+0.1

Allows 0.1 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.

Mainz 05 - last 5 games by half
1st half2nd half
Points per game1.401.80
Goals scored / game0.61.0
Goals allowed / game1.00.6
Average goals per game1.61.6
1 goal100%100%
2 goals40%40%
3 goals20%20%
Clean sheet40%60%
No goal40%40%
Goal difference-2+2
Half-time: 40% leading - 20% draw - 40% trailing
2nd half: 60% won - 0% draw - 40% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 20% - Half-time goals total: 3
Hamburger SV - last 5 games by half
1st half2nd half
Points per game1.801.40
Goals scored / game0.80.6
Goals allowed / game0.40.4
Average goals per game1.21.0
1 goal60%60%
2 goals40%40%
3 goals20%0%
Clean sheet60%60%
No goal40%40%
Goal difference+2+1
Half-time: 40% leading - 60% draw - 0% trailing
2nd half: 20% won - 80% draw - 0% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 40% - Half-time goals total: 4

* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.

Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?

The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.

Mainz 05
ScoredConceded
2
9
0-15
4
4
16-30
5
6
31-45
3
5
46-60
6
1
61-75
5
12
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.

Hamburger SV
ScoredConceded
2
4
0-15
2
6
16-30
5
4
31-45
5
6
46-60
4
4
61-75
6
7
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.

* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.

Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?

A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.

Game profile

2.72
Estimated goals
attack vs. opponent defense
1.3 : 1.4
Estimated goal split
home : away
85%
Pace vs league
100% = league average
54%
Both teams scored (BTTS)
average from both teams' seasons
+47%
Derby effect
H2H goals vs typical matches
37%
BTTS estimate
from both teams' scoring frequency
16%
0:0 risk
about 1 in 6 matches
0-1
Most common goal range
attack vs. defense for both teams

Mainz 05

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
-0.32
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
-0.22
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
+0.3 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.18
Defensive efficiency
Does the defense or goalkeeper outperform the chances allowed? A positive value means the team allows fewer goals than its xGA suggests.
-0.04
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
65%
Defense vs. league
Goals allowed compared with the league average. An 80% score means 20% fewer goals allowed.
117%
Form trend
Compares points from the last five games with the full-season average.
+0.85
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
+0.1
Late goals
20% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 8% come in the first quarter-hour.
20%

Hamburger SV

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
-0.13
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
-0.21
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
+1.4 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.29
Defensive efficiency
Does the defense or goalkeeper outperform the chances allowed? A positive value means the team allows fewer goals than its xGA suggests.
+0.08
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
80%
Defense vs. league
Goals allowed compared with the league average. An 80% score means 20% fewer goals allowed.
84%
Form trend
Compares points from the last five games with the full-season average.
+0.61
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
+0.3
Late goals
25% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 8% come in the first quarter-hour.
25%

* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.

League context— is this a high-scoring league?

How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Bundesliga).

Teams vs league

Mainz 05LigaHamburger SV
Average goals per game▼ 2.823.19▼ 2.62
Both teams scored▼ 55%58%▼ 52%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)▼ 55%63%▼ 52%
Clean sheets▼ 9%24%▲ 29%
Goal before half-time▲ 82%77%▼ 67%
Goal after half-time▲ 86%83%▼ 71%

^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.

3.19
Average goals per game
58%
Both teams scored
63%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)
24%
Clean sheets
1.76
Home goals / game
1.43
Away goals / game
+23%
Home attack advantage
+19%
Home defensive advantage
+16%
Total home advantage
Goals in 1st half (whole league)
77%
1 goal
42%
2 goals
16%
3 goals
6%
4 goals
Goals in 2nd half (whole league)
83%
1 goal
55%
2 goals
24%
3 goals
12%
4 goals

Lineups and player events

Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.

Home team

Away team

Match timeline

Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.

  1. Mainz 05Yellow cardSilla Wamangituka
  2. Hamburger SVYellow cardMiro Muheim
  3. Mainz 05GoalNadiem AmiriAssist: Danny Vieira da Costa
  4. Mainz 05Yellow cardDominik Kohr
  5. Mainz 05SubstitutionOn: Sheraldo BeckerOff: Silla Wamangituka
  6. Hamburger SVYellow cardNicolai Remberg
  7. Mainz 05SubstitutionOn: Nikolas VeratschnigOff: Dominik Kohr
  8. Hamburger SVGoalFábio Daniel Ferreira Vieira
  9. Hamburger SVSubstitutionOn: Rayan PhilippeOff: Philip Otele
  10. Mainz 05SubstitutionOn: Paul NebelOff: Jae-Sung Lee
  11. Hamburger SVSubstitutionOn: Daniel ElfadliOff: Ransford Königsdörffer
  12. Hamburger SVSubstitutionOn: Giorgi GocholeishviliOff: Miro Muheim
  13. Mainz 05Yellow cardKacper Potulski

Referee and managers

Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.

RefereeRobin Braun

Referee context

See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.

Robin BraunMatches officiated: 8
4.13Cards per match
0Penalties per match
1 / X / 238%Home wins50%Draws13%Away wins

Head-to-head

Record from Mainz 05's perspective: 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss against Hamburger SV. Games average 4.00 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.

Hamburger SV
4 : 0
1. FSV Mainz 05

FAQ

What was the result of Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV?

The Bundesliga match finished Mainz 05 1:1 Hamburger SV. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.

What do the goal statistics show before Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV?

Mainz 05 score 1.14 goals per game on average and Hamburger SV 1.14. The Bundesliga average is 3.19 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 63% of games. Both teams score in 55% of Mainz 05's matches and 52% of Hamburger SV's.

What form are Mainz 05 and Hamburger SV in?

Over the last 5 games Mainz 05 have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and Hamburger SV 2-3-0 (1.80 points per game).

Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV?

Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.