Mainz 05 vs Heidenheim: match statistics
Despite a poor table position, Mainz 05 has recently shown improved form with four draws and one win in their last five matches, remaining unbeaten. Heidenheim is exceptionally weak on the road with an 86% loss rate, failing to record a single draw or keep a clean sheet. The hosts have a better xG balance in home games (1.4 vs 1.36) compared to Heidenheim's away xG (1.18 vs 1.84), suggesting greater offensive efficiency for Mainz. Although both teams are fighting to avoid relegation, Mainz's significant advantage in form and Heidenheim's disastrous away disposition point towards a home victory. However, Mainz's high percentage of home draws (38%) and the unpredictability of matches in the relegation zone also justify a significant probability of splitting the points.
Mainz 05 vs Heidenheim: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Mainz 05 play Heidenheim in Bundesliga (Germany). The match date is 13 January 2026 at 20:30. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Mainz 05: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Heidenheim: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Mainz 05 scores 1.29 and concedes 1.56 goals per match. Heidenheim scores 1.21 and concedes 2.12. League average: 3.24 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Mainz 05 62%, Heidenheim 62%. Over 2.5: Mainz 05 53%, Heidenheim 68%. League level: BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 64%.
xG, shots and style
Mainz 05 has higher xG: 1.42 vs 1.25. Mainz 05: 12.1 shots per match, Heidenheim: 11.4.
Match halves
Mainz 05: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 0.62. Heidenheim: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.74.
Goals by minute
Mainz 05: 31-45+ (10 goals). Heidenheim: 76-90+ (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Bundesliga: 3.24 goals per match, BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 64%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 1-0-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Match description
Despite a poor table position, Mainz 05 has recently shown improved form with four draws and one win in their last five matches, remaining unbeaten. Heidenheim is exceptionally weak on the road with an 86% loss rate, failing to record a single draw or keep a clean sheet. The hosts have a better xG balance in home games (1.4 vs 1.36) compared to Heidenheim's away xG (1.18 vs 1.84), suggesting greater offensive efficiency for Mainz. Although both teams are fighting to avoid relegation, Mainz's significant advantage in form and Heidenheim's disastrous away disposition point towards a home victory. However, Mainz's high percentage of home draws (38%) and the unpredictability of matches in the relegation zone also justify a significant probability of splitting the points.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Mainz 05 | Heidenheim | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Mainz 05 is 7% better for: goals scored per match.
1.29 goals / match - Mainz 05 · 1.21 goals / match - Heidenheim
Mainz 05 is 36% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.56 goals / match - Mainz 05 · 2.12 goals / match - Heidenheim
Mainz 05 scores in 71% of matches (24 of 34 matches), while Heidenheim keeps a clean sheet in 3% (1 of 34 matches).
Heidenheim scores in 65% of matches (22 of 34 matches), while Mainz 05 keeps a clean sheet in 12% (4 of 34 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Mainz 05
Over / Under — Heidenheim
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Mainz 05 is 42% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.38 pts / match - Mainz 05 · 0.97 pts / match - Heidenheim
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Mainz 05 - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 29%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Heidenheim - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 18%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +5 | -5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (10 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (20). Late-goal balance (76-90): -11 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goli). Concedes most in 31-45 (17). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Mainz 05
Heidenheim
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Bundesliga).
Teams vs league
| Mainz 05 | Liga | Heidenheim | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.85 | 3.24 | • 3.32 |
| Both teams scored | • 62% | 62% | • 62% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 53% | 64% | ▲ 68% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 12% | 21% | ▼ 3% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 82% | 77% | • 76% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 88% | 86% | ▲ 94% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Mainz 05 1 - 0 - 0 Heidenheim. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Mainz 05 vs Heidenheim?
The Bundesliga match finished Mainz 05 2:1 Heidenheim. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Mainz 05 vs Heidenheim?
Mainz 05 score 1.29 goals per game on average and Heidenheim 1.21. The Bundesliga average is 3.24 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 64% of games. Both teams score in 62% of Mainz 05's matches and 62% of Heidenheim's.
What form are Mainz 05 and Heidenheim in?
Over the last 5 games Mainz 05 have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Heidenheim 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mainz 05 vs Heidenheim?
The statistical background for Mainz 05 vs Heidenheim — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.