Málaga CF vs Ceuta: match statistics
Málaga CF displays significantly superior home form with a 50% win rate and an impressive run in their last five matches (three wins). The hosts average 1.9 goals per home game, failing to score in just 10% of matches, indicating an effective offense. Ceuta shows poor away results with only a 20% win rate and a negative goal difference (-6), averaging just 1 goal on the road and failing to score in 40% of matches. xG statistics also favor the hosts (1.72 vs 1.07), while the advantage in possession (51% vs 48%) and a significantly higher number of shots on target (6.1 vs 2.7) further reinforce Málaga's position. Considering all factors, a home win is the most probable scenario, although the visitors' solid defense (30% clean sheets) could potentially lead to a draw.
Málaga CF vs Ceuta: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Málaga CF played against Ceuta in Segunda División (Spain). The game was played on January 11, 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Recent form
Málaga CF has 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses over its last five games, averaging 2.20 points per game. Ceuta has 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses, with 2.20 points per game.
Scoring records
Málaga CF scores 1.45 goals per game and allows 1.25. Ceuta scores 1.20 and allows 1.20. Games in this league average 2.56 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 60% of Málaga CF's games and 50% of Ceuta's. The Over 2.5 rates are 55% and 45%, compared with league averages of 56% for BTTS and 49% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Málaga CF has the higher season xG average, 1.47 to 1.25 per game. Málaga CF takes 12.6 shots per game, while Ceuta takes 10.7.
First-half and second-half trends
Málaga CF leads at halftime in 40% of its games and scores 0.85 goals per game after halftime. Ceuta leads at halftime in 30% and scores 0.60 after halftime.
When the teams score
Málaga CF's most productive scoring window is minutes 46-60 (8 goals). For Ceuta, it is minutes 0-15 (5 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Segunda División games average 2.56 goals. Both teams score in 56% of games, and 49% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
There is not enough head-to-head history for a meaningful comparison.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Málaga CF displays significantly superior home form with a 50% win rate and an impressive run in their last five matches (three wins). The hosts average 1.9 goals per home game, failing to score in just 10% of matches, indicating an effective offense. Ceuta shows poor away results with only a 20% win rate and a negative goal difference (-6), averaging just 1 goal on the road and failing to score in 40% of matches. xG statistics also favor the hosts (1.72 vs 1.07), while the advantage in possession (51% vs 48%) and a significantly higher number of shots on target (6.1 vs 2.7) further reinforce Málaga's position. Considering all factors, a home win is the most probable scenario, although the visitors' solid defense (30% clean sheets) could potentially lead to a draw.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Málaga CF | Ceuta | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Málaga CF is 21% better for: goals scored per game.
1.45 goals / game - Málaga CF · 1.2 goals / game - Ceuta
Málaga CF scores in 75% of games (15 of 20 meczów), while Ceuta keeps a clean sheet in 35% (7 of 20 meczów).
Ceuta scores in 75% of games (15 of 20 meczów), while Málaga CF keeps a clean sheet in 15% (3 of 20 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Málaga CF
Over / Under - Ceuta
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Málaga CF is 24% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.55 pts / game - Málaga CF · 1.25 pts / game - Ceuta
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Málaga CF - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 40% of games and wins 40%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.6 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Ceuta - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 30% of games and wins 45%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +2 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (5 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Málaga CF
Ceuta
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Segunda División).
Teams vs league
| Málaga CF | Liga | Ceuta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 2.70 | 2.56 | ▼ 2.40 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 60% | 56% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 55% | 49% | ▼ 45% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 15% | 27% | ▲ 35% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 70% | 66% | ▲ 80% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 85% | 75% | ▼ 55% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
FAQ
What was the result of Málaga CF vs Ceuta?
The Segunda División match finished Málaga CF 2:1 Ceuta. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Málaga CF vs Ceuta?
Málaga CF score 1.45 goals per game on average and Ceuta 1.20. The Segunda División average is 2.56 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 49% of games. Both teams score in 60% of Málaga CF's matches and 50% of Ceuta's.
What form are Málaga CF and Ceuta in?
Over the last 5 games Málaga CF have a 3-2-0 record (2.20 points per game) and Ceuta 3-2-0 (2.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Málaga CF vs Ceuta?
The statistical background for Málaga CF vs Ceuta — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.