Mantova vs Empoli: match statistics

Mantova have shown clearly better results momentum across their last five matches: they have won 4 times and collected 12 points, while Empoli recorded 2 wins and 3 draws for a total of 9 points. The hosts scored 10 goals during this period, averaging 2.0 per match, compared with Empoli’s 5 goals, so their attacking potential appears significantly stronger. On the other hand, Mantova conceded 8 goals in five matches, whereas Empoli conceded just 3, meaning the visitors should be a difficult opponent thanks to their more solid defense. Empoli remain unbeaten in their last five appearances, but they drew 3 of those matches, which weakens the case for an away win. Home advantage and Mantova’s greater attacking efficiency point towards a narrow victory, although a draw remains a highly realistic outcome.

Recent form leans slightly toward both teams finding the net: Mantova averaged 2.0 goals scored but conceded 1.6 over their last 5 matches. Empoli averaged 1.0 goal per game during this period, while Mantova allowed opponents a high 1.62 xG, which should give the visitors a realistic chance of scoring. The hosts created an average of 1.48 xG, while Empoli allowed opponents 1.22 xG, so their goal is also more likely than a blank. BTTS - Yes landed in 40% of Mantova’s and 60% of Empoli’s last five appearances, with the league average at 60%; therefore, the “Yes” selection holds a small but clear edge.

Mantova have averaged 2.0 goals scored over their last 5 matches, but Empoli have conceded only 0.6 goals per game during this period, limiting the hosts’ projection to around 1.4 goals. The visitors have averaged 1.0 goal, while Mantova have allowed opponents 1.6 goals, although their average xG is only 1.11. The combined xG indicators suggest a moderate scenario: Mantova created chances worth 1.48 xG, while Empoli allowed 1.22 xG, whereas the corresponding figures at the other end are 1.11 and 1.62. As many as 80% of Mantova’s last five matches went Over 2.5 goals, but this has not occurred in any of Empoli’s matches, which have produced an average total of just 1.6 goals. The projected total of 2.45 goals gives a clear edge to Under 3.5, as at least four goals are required for this bet to lose.

Mantova have won 4 of their last 5 matches, averaging 2.0 goals per game during this period, while Empoli have recorded 3 draws in their last 5 fixtures. The hosts held a lead at the break in 3 of their last 5 appearances, scoring an average of 1.0 goal before half-time while conceding just 0.4. Empoli have also taken the lead at half-time in 60% of their recent matches, but their attacking output after the interval stands at only 0.4 goals per game. Mantova average 1.04 xG and register 5 shots on target per match, supporting the scenario of them taking an early lead at home. The 1/1 selection is most consistent with Mantova’s stronger current form and Empoli’s tendency to draw rather than complete a turnaround.