Mariehamn vs TPS: match statistics

Mariehamn holds a clear statistical edge; based on this analysis I back a home win. The hosts scored 8 goals in their last 5 matches (1.6 per game) and conceded 4 (0.8 per game), while TPS managed only 3 goals in that span (0.6 per game) and conceded as many as 14 (2.8 per game). In the last 5 fixtures Mariehamn recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss (1.6 points per game), whereas TPS has 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses (0.2 points per game), underlining a clear form gap. Goal difference over those five matches is +4 for Mariehamn versus -11 for TPS, indicating both superior attacking efficiency from the hosts and greater defensive stability. Considering these figures and league positions (8 vs 11), I estimate the probabilities as: home win 70%, draw 18%, away win 12%.

In the last 5 matches Mariehamn scored 8 goals (avg. 1.6 per game) and conceded 4 (0.8), while TPS scored 3 goals (0.6 per game) and conceded 14 (2.8). From a simple Poisson estimate the probability Mariehamn scores at least once is about 80% (1 - e^-1.6), and TPS about 45% (1 - e^-0.6), which together gives BTTS around 36%. Additionally the BTTS rate in the last 5 matches is 40% for the home side and 60% for the away side, which is a mixed signal; however TPS’s low goals average (0.6) and Mariehamn’s low goals conceded average (0.8) weaken the prospect of both teams scoring. xG shows Mariehamn with xG_for 1.01 versus 0.69 for TPS, indicating a home advantage in chance creation; for these reasons the 'No' scenario (No Goal / clean sheet expected) is more likely and I estimate it at 64% versus 36% for BTTS - Yes (Goal/Goal).

In the last 5 matches Mariehamn averaged 1.6 goals scored (8 goals in 5), while TPS averaged 0.6 goals (3 goals in 5); TPS conceded an average of 2.8 goals (14 conceded in 5). xG in the last 5 matches is 1.01 for Mariehamn and 0.69 for TPS, with xG against of 1.45 (Mariehamn) and 1.37 (TPS), yielding raw expected goals (mean xG_for and xG_against) of 1.19 for the home side and 1.07 for the visitors. An alternative method based on the mean of goals scored and conceded ((1.6+2.8)/2 = 2.2 for the home team; (0.6+0.8)/2 = 0.7 for the visitors) and averaging both approaches gives final expected goals of 1.70 for Mariehamn and 0.89 for TPS, totaling 2.59. With lambda = 2.59 the Poisson distribution gives probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) around 73%, Over 2.5 about 48% and Over 3.5 about 26%. Considering form (Mariehamn 'wlddw' with 2 wins, TPS 'lldll' with 0 wins) and TPS’s high goals-against rate (2.8 per match), the strongest data signal is Over 1.5.

Mariehamn has averaged 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game in the last 5 matches, while TPS has averaged 0.6 scored and 2.8 conceded, giving the hosts the overall edge. At half-time Mariehamn led in 2 of 5 matches (40%), the score was level in 3 of 5 (60%), and TPS never led at the break (0%), so the most likely half-time outcome is a draw. After the break the hosts average 1.0 goals versus 0.4 for TPS and have had goals in the second half in 100% of their last 5 matches, suggesting they often take the initiative in the second half. Based on these figures I select the Half-Time/Full-Time scenario of draw at the break and a home win (X/1) as the strongest signal; I assign it a 34% probability, the second scenario is 1/1 at 18%, and the combined probability of a TPS win is approximately 12%.