Marines vs Etincelles: match statistics
Marines vs Etincelles: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Marines played against Etincelles in National Soccer League (Rwanda). The game was played on May 16, 2026. Final score: 2:3.
Recent form
Marines has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses over its last five games, averaging 0.80 points per game. Etincelles has 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss, with 1.20 points per game.
Scoring records
Marines scores 1.32 goals per game and allows 1.19. Etincelles scores 0.74 and allows 1.19. Games in this league average 2.07 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 55% of Marines's games and 55% of Etincelles's. The Over 2.5 rates are 42% and 32%, compared with league averages of 45% for BTTS and 37% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Etincelles has the higher season xG average, 1.23 to 1.16 per game. Marines takes 6.9 shots per game, while Etincelles takes 7.8.
First-half and second-half trends
Marines leads at halftime in 48% of its games and scores 0.48 goals per game after halftime. Etincelles leads at halftime in 23% and scores 0.29 after halftime.
When the teams score
Marines's most productive scoring window is minutes 31-45+ (15 goals). For Etincelles, it is minutes 16-30 (6 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
National Soccer League games average 2.07 goals. Both teams score in 45% of games, and 37% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 1 home win, 0 draws and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Marines sit 8th and win 43% of home matches; at home they score 1.36 goals and concede 1.00 per game, with xG for 0.99 and xG against 0.94, and a shot conversion rate of 16%. Etincelles are 17th, winning only 7% of away games and drawing 53%; they average 0.87 goals away with xG 1.22, but their conversion is only 10% and in 33% of away matches they fail to score. In the last 5 fixtures Marines scored 7 goals and average 0.8 points per game (1W-1D-3L), while Etincelles scored 5 goals and average 1.2 points per game (1W-3D-1L), which shows greater consistency from the visitors despite poor away efficiency. The visitors register more shots (avg. 8.47, 2.73 on target) than the hosts (6.82, 2.18 on target), however lower conversion and a higher average of goals conceded away (1.6 vs 1.0) represent a significant advantage for Marines. Considering the higher home efficiency (conversion 16% vs 10%), the lower share of matches without a goal for Marines (14% vs 33%) and Etincelles’ frequent away draws (53%), I predict a home victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back 'Yes' (BTTS) at 60% vs 40% for 'No' because the statistical profiles of both teams favor goals from both sides. Etincelles have a season BTTS rate of 67% vs Marines' 44%, and in the last 5 matches it's 60% vs 40% respectively, giving the visitors an edge for BTTS. Both teams produce similar xG: 1.24 (Marines) and 1.22 (Etincelles), which translates to estimated probabilities of scoring at least one goal of about 71% and 70% (1 - e^{-xG}). Despite low season average goals of 0.63 (Marines) and 0.87 (Etincelles), Marines have averaged 1.4 goals in the last 5 matches, and both teams concede an average of 1.4 goals, which increases the likelihood of Goal/Goal. Additionally, Etincelles have only 13% clean sheets vs 38% for Marines, and shots on target 3.31 vs 2.73 confirm that the BTTS scenario is stronger.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Marines average 0.63 goals per season, Etincelles 0.87, but xG is 1.24 (Marines) and 1.22 (Etincelles), giving a combined xG of 2.46 which points close to 2.5 expected goals. Etincelles concede 1.6 goals per game season-to-date, Marines 0.81; in the last 5 matches xG_for is 1.05 (Marines) and 1.32 (Etincelles), indicating an increase in chance creation. Season percentages for matches over 1.5 goals are 50% (Marines) and 80% (Etincelles), and over 0.5 occurred in 69%/87% of games, boosting the probability of at least two goals. Over 2.5 is less clear: season rates are 25%/40% for the two teams and 37% in the league, but the last 5 matches show over2.5 at 60% for both sides, so I estimate over2.5 at around 47%. Marines average 9.0 shots with 3.31 on target and 8% conversion, Etincelles 8.47 shots with 2.73 on target and 10% conversion, meaning xG is higher than season goals due to moderate finishing. As a result the strongest signal is over 1.5 (pick: Over 1.5), since combined expected goals are 2.46, high over1.5 shares of 50%/80% and below-par finishing favor at least two goals in the match.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time (X/X): Marines draw at the break in 69% of matches, and the overall full-time draw rate is 50% for Marines and 53% for Etincelles. Marines score an average of 0.44 goals by half-time and concede only 0.19, keeping a clean sheet at the break in 81% of games, which suggests many goalless or tied first halves. Etincelles concede an average of 1.6 goals per match and 0.79 by half-time and are trailing at the break in 50% of games, demonstrating their instability and lower ability to execute a turnaround. The teams’ xG is nearly identical (1.24 vs 1.22), and shots on target (3.31 vs 2.73) give only a slight advantage to the home side—insufficient to materially reduce the frequency of draws; therefore X/X (40%) is the most reliable option, with alternatives X/1 (21%) and 1/1 (17%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Marines | Etincelles | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.49 | 0.28 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Etincelles is 50% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / game - Marines · 1.2 pts / game - Etincelles
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Marines is 78% better for: goals scored per game.
1.32 goals / game - Marines · 0.74 goals / game - Etincelles
Marines scores in 81% of games (25 of 31 meczów), while Etincelles keeps a clean sheet in 26% (8 of 31 meczów).
Etincelles scores in 58% of games (18 of 31 meczów), while Marines keeps a clean sheet in 26% (8 of 31 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Marines
Over / Under - Etincelles
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Marines is 46% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.74 pts / game - Marines · 1.19 pts / game - Etincelles
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Marines - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 48% of games and wins 35%. Sometimes gives up a halftime lead.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Etincelles - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 23% of games and wins 13%. Sometimes gives up a halftime lead.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -3 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (15 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (6 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Marines
Etincelles
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National Soccer League).
Teams vs league
| Marines | Liga | Etincelles | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 2.52 | 2.07 | ▼ 1.94 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 55% | 45% | ▲ 55% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 42% | 37% | ▼ 32% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 26% | 35% | ▼ 26% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 81% | 61% | ▼ 55% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 74% | 70% | ▼ 61% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Record from Marines's perspective: 1 win, 0 draws and 0 losses against Etincelles. Games average 2.00 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Marines vs Etincelles?
The National Soccer League match finished Marines 2:3 Etincelles. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Marines vs Etincelles?
Marines score 1.32 goals per game on average and Etincelles 0.74. The National Soccer League average is 2.07 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 37% of games. Both teams score in 55% of Marines's matches and 55% of Etincelles's.
What form are Marines and Etincelles in?
Over the last 5 games Marines have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Etincelles 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Marines vs Etincelles?
The statistical background for Marines vs Etincelles — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.