Mārupe vs Tukums II: match statistics

Mārupe have a clear home advantage: they win 40% of their home matches, while Tukums II win just 11% of their away games and lose as many as 78%. The hosts score an average of 1.60 goals at home, while the visitors’ defense concedes 4.11 goals per match and has an average xG against of 2.38. Tukums II have kept no clean sheets away from home, which should allow Mārupe to exploit their 16% shot conversion rate, higher than the visitors’ 10%. Both teams are in poor current form, having scored 5 goals each and lost four of their last five matches, but Tukums II have conceded as many as 23 goals in that period compared with Mārupe’s 12. Home advantage and the visitors’ exceptionally leaky defense point towards a home win.

BTTS - Yes is primarily supported by Tukums II’s very weak defense, as they concede an average of 4.11 goals per match, have kept no clean sheets and allowed opponents to score as many as 23 goals in their last 5 fixtures. Mārupe should therefore create plenty of chances, especially since their average xG stands at 1.59, while Tukums II allow opponents an xG of 2.38. The visitors also have a case for scoring, as Mārupe concede an average of 1.89 goals and have allowed as many as 2.4 goals per match across their last five games. The seasonal BTTS rate is 67% for Mārupe and 78% for Tukums II, both above the league figure of 64%. However, both teams have averaged only 1.0 goal in their last five appearances, which limits confidence in the pick, although the scale of their defensive problems more clearly supports a scenario in which both sides score.

Tukums II concede an average of as many as 4.11 goals per match and have kept a clean sheet in none of their games this season, which significantly increases the hosts’ potential. Mārupe create chances worth an average of 1.59 xG, while the visitors’ defense allows opponents 2.38 xG, resulting in a forecast of 2.25 goals for the hosts. Both teams recorded over 1.5 goals in 100% of their league matches, and in their last five games they conceded 2.4 and 4.6 goals per match, respectively. An additional argument is the league’s high average of 3.68 goals, as well as the fact that 89% of Tukums II matches featured at least three goals. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as even with lower attacking efficiency from both teams, the extent of the visitors’ defensive problems makes a match scenario with no more than one goal highly unlikely.

A draw at half-time followed by a Mārupe win is the most likely outcome, as the hosts held a lead at the break in only 11% of matches, and in none of their last five. Tukums II also opened matches with a lead in just 11% of games, while they were behind at half-time in as many as 67%, indicating considerable instability on both sides in the opening phase. After the interval, Mārupe score an average of 0.89 goals and earn 1.44 points per match, whereas Tukums II concede as many as 1.78 goals and collect just 0.44 points. The visitors’ defensive record is also crucial: over the entire season, they have allowed opponents an average of 4.11 goals, with an xG against of 2.38, while conceding 4.6 goals per match across their last five appearances. Mārupe have the higher attacking xG, 1.59 compared with 1.37, so they should be better placed to exploit Tukums II’s defensive weaknesses in the second half. The corresponding HT/FT selection is X/1.