Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar: match statistics
Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Mbeya City played against Kagera Sugar in Ligi kuu Bara (Tanzania). The game was played on October 9, 2026. Venue: Sokoine Stadium. Final score: 1:3.
Recent form
Mbeya City has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 2.00 points per game. Kagera Sugar has 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, with 0.40 points per game.
Scoring records
Mbeya City scores 1.00 goals per game and allows 0.67. Kagera Sugar scores 0.83 and allows 2.33. Games in this league average 2.49 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 17% of Mbeya City's games and 67% of Kagera Sugar's. The Over 2.5 rates are 17% and 33%, compared with league averages of 47% for BTTS and 43% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Kagera Sugar has the higher season xG average, 1.47 to 1.45 per game. Mbeya City takes 8.2 shots per game, while Kagera Sugar takes 7.8.
First-half and second-half trends
Mbeya City leads at halftime in 17% of its games and scores 0.83 goals per game after halftime. Kagera Sugar leads at halftime in 33% and scores 0.17 after halftime.
When the teams score
Mbeya City's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (3 goals). For Kagera Sugar, it is minutes 31-45+ (2 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Ligi kuu Bara games average 2.49 goals. Both teams score in 47% of games, and 43% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
There is not enough head-to-head history for a meaningful comparison.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Mbeya City sit 5th and have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while 15th-placed Kagera Sugar have failed to win during that span. The hosts’ advantage is particularly evident defensively: they concede an average of 0.67 goals at home, whereas the visitors concede as many as 4 goals per away match and have lost both of those fixtures. Mbeya City have won 2 of their 3 home games, scoring an average of 1.33 goals, which, combined with their opponents’ defensive struggles away from home, points to another victory. Kagera can still create chances, however—their away xG is 1.74 compared with 1.32 for the hosts—so a clean sheet is far from guaranteed. Ultimately, the difference in results and goals conceded tips the balance in Mbeya City’s favor.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The strongest signal in favor of both teams scoring comes from Kagera Sugar: they have scored in every away match but have yet to keep a clean sheet, with away BTTS at 100%. Mbeya City have also failed to keep a clean sheet at home, giving the visitors a genuine chance to extend their scoring run, particularly with an average xG of 1.74 compared with the 1.61 xG conceded by the hosts. The greater uncertainty is whether Mbeya City will score: they average just 0.5 goals at home and have failed to score in 50% of those matches. However, Kagera concede an average of 4.0 goals away from home and have shipped 12 in total across their last five matches, significantly increasing the likelihood of a goal from the hosts. Although the league BTTS rate is 47%, the visitors' defensive frailty and neither side having kept a clean sheet tip the assessment towards BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line has been surpassed in 100% of Mbeya City’s home matches and Kagera Sugar’s away matches so far. The hosts create chances worth an average of 1.29 xG at home, while the visitors allow opponents 1.61 xG and have conceded an average of 4.0 goals away, supporting the case for a Mbeya City goal. Kagera Sugar generate 1.74 xG away and average 6.5 shots on target, although Mbeya City have conceded just 0.6 goals per match across their last five games. A forecast of 2.75 total goals also favors Over 2.5, but the contrast between 0% of such matches for the hosts and 100% for the visitors makes Over 1.5 the safer pick.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Mbeya City were level at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches, and kept a clean sheet in the first half in 4 of them, which supports a draw at the break. However, this is not a certain scenario: Kagera Sugar led at the break in 2 of their last 5 matches. Recent results after the interval clearly favor the hosts — Mbeya averaged 1.0 goals scored and 0.2 conceded, while Kagera averaged 0.2 scored and 1.2 conceded. Mbeya won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Kagera won none, so I consider a half-time draw followed by a home win at full-time the most likely outcome. However, the visitors’ higher xG, 1.74 compared with the hosts’ 1.29, means this HT/FT lean is not decisive.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Mbeya City | Kagera Sugar | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 29% | 47% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.43 | 0.23 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Mbeya City is 400% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / game - Mbeya City · 0.4 pts / game - Kagera Sugar
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Mbeya City is 20% better for: goals scored per game.
1 goals / game - Mbeya City · 0.83 goals / game - Kagera Sugar
Mbeya City is 248% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.67 goals / game - Mbeya City · 2.33 goals / game - Kagera Sugar
Mbeya City scores in 50% of games (3 of 6 games), while Kagera Sugar keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 6 games).
Kagera Sugar scores in 67% of games (4 of 6 games), while Mbeya City keeps a clean sheet in 50% (3 of 6 games).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Mbeya City
Over / Under - Kagera Sugar
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Kagera Sugar is 17% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / game - Mbeya City · 1.17 pts / game - Kagera Sugar
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Mbeya City - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 17% of games and wins 50%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Kagera Sugar - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 33% of games and wins 0%. Sometimes gives up a halftime lead.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals per game | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Average goals per game | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -5 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (2 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Mbeya City
Kagera Sugar
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ligi kuu Bara).
Teams vs league
| Mbeya City | Liga | Kagera Sugar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 1.67 | 2.49 | ▲ 3.17 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 17% | 47% | ▲ 67% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 17% | 43% | ▼ 33% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 27% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 50% | 74% | ▲ 100% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 50% | 72% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Kagera SugarGoalEmmanuel Mvuyekure
FAQ
What was the result of Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar?
The Ligi kuu Bara match finished Mbeya City 1:3 Kagera Sugar. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar?
Mbeya City score 1.00 goals per game on average and Kagera Sugar 0.83. The Ligi kuu Bara average is 2.49 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 43% of games. Both teams score in 17% of Mbeya City's matches and 67% of Kagera Sugar's.
What form are Mbeya City and Kagera Sugar in?
Over the last 5 games Mbeya City have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Kagera Sugar 0-2-3 (0.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.