Mebrat Hayl vs Bahardar: match statistics

Mebrat Hayl is 4th with a season record of 9 wins, 10 draws and 5 losses, scoring 19 and conceding 13; at home their goal difference is +6. Bahardar sit 9th with 6 wins, 13 draws and 5 losses, 17 goals scored and 17 conceded; their away goal difference is -1. In the last 5 matches Mebrat scored 8 goals and recorded 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (averaging 2.0 points per game), while Bahardar scored 3 goals with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses (1.4 points per game). At home Mebrat concedes only 0.33 goals per game on average, posts 67% clean sheets, scores 0.83 goals and registers 2.18 shots on target per game, whereas Bahardar away concede 0.75 goals, have 50% clean sheets, score 0.67 goals and average 1.92 shots on target, which gives the hosts a clear defensive edge. Although xG values are similar (1.11 for the hosts vs 1.15 for the visitors), Mebrat’s superior efficiency (conversion 12% vs 9%), better form and higher goal output in the last 5 matches favor a home win, albeit I expect a low-scoring game.

Both teams have low seasonal BTTS rates: Mebrat Hayl 25% and Bahardar 33%, averaging ~29% BTTS in their matches. In the last 5 fixtures Mebrat scored 8 goals (1.6 avg) with BTTS 40%, while Bahardar scored 3 goals (0.6 avg) with BTTS 0% — the away team has not been involved in any BTTS in their last 5 games. A strong signal for “No Goal” is also provided by high clean sheet expected: home 67% and away 50%, and the league overall has 81% of matches with a clean sheet, indicating a high number of games without both sides scoring. Offensive stats show the home side with 3.25 shots on target and xG 1.34 versus 1.92 shots on target and xG 1.15 for the away side, but season goal averages are only 0.75 and 0.67 respectively, meaning low finishing reduces BTTS probability. Considering the seasonal BTTS (~29%), Bahardar’s 0% BTTS in the last 5 matches and high CS rates 67%/50%, I project No BTTS as more likely: approximately 72% vs 28% for BTTS - Yes.

The combined xG for both teams is 2.49 (1.34 for Mebrat Hayl and 1.15 for Bahardar), but actual goals averages are 0.75 (home) and 0.67 (away); therefore I compromise to forecast 1.00 goals for Mebrat Hayl and 0.85 for Bahardar (total 1.85). With that total of 1.85 I estimate the probability of at least two goals (Over 1.5) at about 55%, and three or more goals (Over 2.5) at about 28%. Arguments for Under 2.5 include high clean sheet rates: 67% for the home side and 50% for the away side, low season Over 2.5 rates: 25% (home) and 17% (away), and low shot conversion of 8%/9% despite the hosts’ advantage in shots on target 3.25 vs 1.92. In the last 5 matches Mebrat Hayl scored 8 goals (1.6 avg) and Bahardar 3 goals (0.6 avg), which shows asymmetry and no clear threat of a high-scoring game. As a result, the strongest signal from the data is Under 2.5 (selection: Under, line 2.5).

At half-time, a draw is most likely: season-long metrics show Mebrat Hayl drew at the break in 75% of matches and Bahardar in 83% of matches. However, in the last 5 fixtures Mebrat Hayl led at the break in 60% of cases and averaged 1.2 goals by half-time versus only 0.2 for Bahardar, giving the hosts an advantage after the break. In the second half the hosts concede only 0.25 goals on average compared to 0.58 for the visitors; additionally Mebrat has a higher xG (1.34 vs 1.15) and more shots on target (3.25 vs 1.92), indicating higher-quality chances after the interval. The low frequency of both teams scoring (BTTS 25% for the hosts and 33% for the guests) and Mebrat’s form (3 wins in the last 5, i.e. 60%) make a half-time draw followed by a home win the most probable outcome (X/1).