Meizhou Hakka vs Dalian Huayi: match statistics

Dalian Huayi holds a statistical edge — they have scored 19 goals this season versus Meizhou’s 13, while home side concede an average of 2.57 goals per home match compared to Dalian’s 1.67 conceded away. In the last 5 matches Dalian scored 9 goals and averaged 1.4 points per game, while Meizhou scored 7 goals and averaged 1.0 points per game, indicating better points form for the visitors. The hosts control possession (53% vs 40%) and register more on-target shots at home (3.14 vs 2.67), but their defense is unreliable — Meizhou have 0% clean sheets and lose 71% of home matches. xG differences are marginal (home xG 1.15 vs away 1.21), however Meizhou concede more goals than their xG against suggests (xG against 1.19), which may point to goalkeeping issues or opponent finishing quality. Considering Dalian’s superior goal output and higher points per game, I project an away win (2) with probability 55%, draw 25% and home win 20%.

Seasonal statistics strongly favor BTTS: Meizhou has BTTS in 71% of matches, Dalian in 67%, while the league average is 54%. In the last 5 games Meizhou recorded BTTS in 80% of fixtures and Dalian in 60%, which further boosts the likelihood of both teams scoring. Meizhou averages 1.71 goals and has xG 1.56 per match, while Dalian concedes 1.67 goals with xG against 1.76 — this indicates the home side is creating chances against a team prone to conceding. Additionally, Meizhou averages 4.43 shots on target per game versus Dalian’s 2.67, and Dalian has 0% clean sheets this season, increasing the probability of goals from both sides. Considering the 71%/67% seasonal BTTS, 80%/60% in the last 5, and the xG and shot metrics, I forecast BTTS with a probability of 72% (Yes) and 28% (No).

The xG model suggests 1.66 expected goals for Meizhou Hakka and 1.24 for Dalian Huayi, totaling 2.90 expected goals, above the league average of 2.61. The home side averages 13.43 shots and 4.43 shots on target per match versus 9.67 and 2.67 for the visitors, with a conversion rate of 13% vs 12%, favoring more goal-scoring opportunities. Seasonally Over 1.5 occurs in 86% of home matches and 67% of away matches; the Poisson model estimates the probability of over 1.5 at ~79% and over 2.5 at ~55%. The percentage of matches in which both teams scored is 71% for the home team and 67% for the away team, further increasing the chance of at least two goals. Therefore the best selection is to play Over 1.5 — it carries the strongest edge signal at about 79% at available lines.

The most likely scenario is X/1 (draw at half-time, home win). Meizhou Hakka were level at the break in 86% of their matches (6 so far), while Dalian Huayi led at half-time in 50% of their games (3 so far), suggesting a high incidence of draws or minimal leads after 45 minutes. After the break the hosts are clearly stronger — they collected 12 points in second halves and average 1.71 points per match after half-time versus 4 points and 0.67 for the visitors, and Meizhou scored 5 goals in minutes 46–60 compared to 0 for Dalian in that interval. Additionally, Meizhou have higher xG (1.56 vs 1.21) and more shots on target (4.43 vs 2.67), increasing the probability of a turnaround after the break. For these reasons the strongest signal is a draw at the break and a home win at full-time.