Mekelle Kenema vs Mebrat Hayl: match statistics
Statistical analysis points to a close contest with a high likelihood of a draw. Mekelle Kenema has shown solid form in the last five matches (2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses) and remains unbeaten in that span, demonstrating defensive stability (only 1 goal conceded). However, the hosts struggle immensely to win at home (0% home win rate, 71% draws). Mebrat Hayl occupies a higher table position with a better overall record, but they are very ineffective offensively on the road (0.29 goals per match, 71% of matches without scoring), despite being solid defensively (57% clean sheets). Given the hosts' tendency to draw at home and the visitors' poor away scoring record, a share of the points is the most probable outcome. The form of both teams in recent matches (PPG: 1.8 vs 1.6) further confirms the even strength of the sides.
Mekelle Kenema vs Mebrat Hayl: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Mekelle Kenema played against Mebrat Hayl in Ethiopia Premier League (Ethiopia). The game was played on January 20, 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Recent form
Mekelle Kenema has 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.80 points per game. Mebrat Hayl has 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, with 1.60 points per game.
Scoring records
Mekelle Kenema scores 0.93 goals per game and allows 1.13. Mebrat Hayl scores 0.67 and allows 0.40. Games in this league average 1.74 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 53% of Mekelle Kenema's games and 20% of Mebrat Hayl's. The Over 2.5 rates are 40% and 13%, compared with league averages of 42% for BTTS and 28% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Mekelle Kenema has the higher season xG average, 1.23 to 1.11 per game. Mekelle Kenema takes 6.7 shots per game, while Mebrat Hayl takes 7.3.
First-half and second-half trends
Mekelle Kenema leads at halftime in 33% of its games and scores 0.40 goals per game after halftime. Mebrat Hayl leads at halftime in 7% and scores 0.60 after halftime.
When the teams score
Mekelle Kenema's most productive scoring window is minutes 16-30 (5 goals). For Mebrat Hayl, it is minutes 46-60 (5 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Ethiopia Premier League games average 1.74 goals. Both teams score in 42% of games, and 28% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
There is not enough head-to-head history for a meaningful comparison.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis points to a close contest with a high likelihood of a draw. Mekelle Kenema has shown solid form in the last five matches (2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses) and remains unbeaten in that span, demonstrating defensive stability (only 1 goal conceded). However, the hosts struggle immensely to win at home (0% home win rate, 71% draws). Mebrat Hayl occupies a higher table position with a better overall record, but they are very ineffective offensively on the road (0.29 goals per match, 71% of matches without scoring), despite being solid defensively (57% clean sheets). Given the hosts' tendency to draw at home and the visitors' poor away scoring record, a share of the points is the most probable outcome. The form of both teams in recent matches (PPG: 1.8 vs 1.6) further confirms the even strength of the sides.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Mekelle Kenema | Mebrat Hayl | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 48% | 28% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Mekelle Kenema is 13% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / game - Mekelle Kenema · 1.6 pts / game - Mebrat Hayl
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Mekelle Kenema is 39% better for: goals scored per game.
0.93 goals / game - Mekelle Kenema · 0.67 goals / game - Mebrat Hayl
Mebrat Hayl is 182% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.13 goals / game - Mekelle Kenema · 0.4 goals / game - Mebrat Hayl
Mekelle Kenema scores in 67% of games (10 of 15 meczów), while Mebrat Hayl keeps a clean sheet in 67% (10 of 15 meczów).
Mebrat Hayl scores in 47% of games (7 of 15 meczów), while Mekelle Kenema keeps a clean sheet in 33% (5 of 15 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Mekelle Kenema
Over / Under - Mebrat Hayl
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Mekelle Kenema is 40% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.4 pts / game - Mekelle Kenema · 1 pts / game - Mebrat Hayl
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Mekelle Kenema - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 33% of games and wins 13%. Sometimes gives up a halftime lead.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Mebrat Hayl - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 7% of games and wins 40%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.1 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Average goals per game | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 100% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (5 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Mekelle Kenema
Mebrat Hayl
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ethiopia Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Mekelle Kenema | Liga | Mebrat Hayl | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 2.07 | 1.74 | ▼ 1.07 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 53% | 42% | ▼ 20% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 40% | 28% | ▼ 13% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 33% | 40% | ▲ 67% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 73% | 56% | ▼ 20% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 60% | 58% | ▲ 60% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Other recorded players
Away team
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Mekelle KenemaGoalFitsum Alemu Fekir
FAQ
What was the result of Mekelle Kenema vs Mebrat Hayl?
The Ethiopia Premier League match finished Mekelle Kenema 2:1 Mebrat Hayl. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Mekelle Kenema vs Mebrat Hayl?
Mekelle Kenema score 0.93 goals per game on average and Mebrat Hayl 0.67. The Ethiopia Premier League average is 1.74 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 28% of games. Both teams score in 53% of Mekelle Kenema's matches and 20% of Mebrat Hayl's.
What form are Mekelle Kenema and Mebrat Hayl in?
Over the last 5 games Mekelle Kenema have a 2-3-0 record (1.80 points per game) and Mebrat Hayl 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mekelle Kenema vs Mebrat Hayl?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.