Melbourne City FC vs Melbourne Victory FC: match statistics
The match promises to be extremely even, justifying the prediction of a draw. Melbourne City FC has a minimal home advantage, but their home form is unstable (38% wins, 38% losses), and their last five matches have yielded only 1.2 PPG. Melbourne Victory FC displays better goal-scoring efficiency (24 goals this season compared to the hosts' 19) and slightly better recent form (1.4 PPG). The key factor is Melbourne City's advantage in ball possession (62% vs 50%) and a higher xG in home matches (1.66 compared to the visitors' 1.75 away), suggesting an even quality of both teams. Statistics indicate a high-scoring match - the hosts average 2.0 goals per match at home, the visitors 2.56 away - which increases the probability of various scoreline scenarios. Considering all the data, a draw seems the most likely result of this Melbourne derby.
Melbourne City FC vs Melbourne Victory FC: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Melbourne City FC play Melbourne Victory FC in A-League (Australia). The match date is 21 February 2026 at 09:35. Final score: 1:3.
Current form
Melbourne City FC: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Melbourne Victory FC: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Melbourne City FC scores 1.26 and concedes 1.26 goals per match. Melbourne Victory FC scores 1.63 and concedes 1.26. League average: 2.82 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Melbourne City FC 52%, Melbourne Victory FC 52%. Over 2.5: Melbourne City FC 44%, Melbourne Victory FC 52%. League level: BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 56%.
xG, shots and style
Melbourne Victory FC has higher xG: 1.88 vs 1.54. Melbourne City FC: 13.1 shots per match, Melbourne Victory FC: 17.2.
Match halves
Melbourne City FC: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.67. Melbourne Victory FC: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
Melbourne City FC: 76-90+ (9 goals). Melbourne Victory FC: 46-60 (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
A-League: 2.82 goals per match, BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 56%.
Head-to-head
2 H2H matches: 1-0-1. Average goals 1.50, BTTS 0%.
Match description
The match promises to be extremely even, justifying the prediction of a draw. Melbourne City FC has a minimal home advantage, but their home form is unstable (38% wins, 38% losses), and their last five matches have yielded only 1.2 PPG. Melbourne Victory FC displays better goal-scoring efficiency (24 goals this season compared to the hosts' 19) and slightly better recent form (1.4 PPG). The key factor is Melbourne City's advantage in ball possession (62% vs 50%) and a higher xG in home matches (1.66 compared to the visitors' 1.75 away), suggesting an even quality of both teams. Statistics indicate a high-scoring match - the hosts average 2.0 goals per match at home, the visitors 2.56 away - which increases the probability of various scoreline scenarios. Considering all the data, a draw seems the most likely result of this Melbourne derby.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Melbourne City FC | Melbourne Victory FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Melbourne City FC is 100% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Melbourne City FC · 1 pts / match - Melbourne Victory FC
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Melbourne Victory FC is 29% better for: goals scored per match.
1.26 goals / match - Melbourne City FC · 1.63 goals / match - Melbourne Victory FC
Melbourne City FC scores in 78% of matches (21 of 27 matches), while Melbourne Victory FC keeps a clean sheet in 22% (6 of 27 matches).
Melbourne Victory FC scores in 67% of matches (18 of 27 matches), while Melbourne City FC keeps a clean sheet in 37% (10 of 27 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Melbourne City FC
Over / Under — Melbourne Victory FC
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Melbourne City FC - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 37%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Melbourne Victory FC - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 41%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (10 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Melbourne City FC
Melbourne Victory FC
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (A-League).
Teams vs league
| Melbourne City FC | Liga | Melbourne Victory FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.52 | 2.82 | • 2.89 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 52% | 60% | ▼ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 44% | 56% | ▼ 52% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 37% | 23% | • 22% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 74% | 72% | ▼ 70% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 74% | 82% | ▼ 78% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Melbourne City FC 1 - 0 - 1 Melbourne Victory FC. Average goals 1.50, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Melbourne City FC vs Melbourne Victory FC?
The A-League match finished Melbourne City FC 1:3 Melbourne Victory FC. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Melbourne City FC and Melbourne Victory FC?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Melbourne City FC won 1, Melbourne Victory FC won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Melbourne City FC vs Melbourne Victory FC?
Melbourne City FC score 1.26 goals per game on average and Melbourne Victory FC 1.63. The A-League average is 2.82 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 56% of games. Both teams score in 52% of Melbourne City FC's matches and 52% of Melbourne Victory FC's.
What form are Melbourne City FC and Melbourne Victory FC in?
Over the last 5 games Melbourne City FC have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Melbourne Victory FC 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Melbourne City FC vs Melbourne Victory FC?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.