Melgar vs Alianza Lima: match statistics

Melgar have a clear home advantage: they win 64% of such matches, score an average of 2.09 goals, and register 16.36 shots per game, compared with Alianza Lima’s 10.09 attempts away from home. The hosts also create more high-quality chances, with an average xG of 1.71 versus 1.12 for the visitors, and have scored 10 goals in their last five matches. Alianza Lima remain very difficult to beat, however, having lost just 1 of 22 matches throughout the season, while away from home they concede only 0.64 goals per game and keep a clean sheet in 45% of their appearances. The visitors draw as many as 45% of their away matches, significantly increasing the likelihood of a tightly contested game, although their average of just 1.00 goal scored away from home marginally favors Melgar. A narrow home win is the most likely outcome, although a draw remains a highly realistic alternative.

Melgar has a very strong attacking argument at home: they score an average of 2.55 goals, generate 2.09 xG, and record 7.27 shots on target per match. Alianza Lima have clearly improved their attack in their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.8 goals with 1.96 xG, while BTTS landed in 80% of those games. The hosts have not been as defensively solid recently as they have been across the season, conceding 1.2 goals per game in their previous five appearances, with average xG conceded standing at 1.43. The season-long defensive data for both teams—0.55 goals conceded by Melgar and 0.64 by Alianza—as well as a 45% clean-sheet rate for each side, limit confidence in the pick. Nevertheless, the combination of Melgar’s dominant attack and Alianza’s current scoring form gives a slight, but strongest, edge to the scenario in which both teams score.

Melgar have a clear edge in chance creation, averaging 2.09 xG, 19.36 shots and 7.27 shots on target per match, compared with Alianza’s 10.09 shots. The hosts score an average of 2.55 goals, while Alianza Lima have averaged 1.8 goals per match over their last five games, supporting a scenario with at least two goals. Both teams’ recent form has been more open than their overall season statistics: Melgar’s matches produced an average of 3.2 goals, while Alianza’s games averaged 2.8 goals across their last five appearances. The Over 1.5 goals line offers the greatest edge, as Melgar exceeded it in 82% of matches, while the projected total of 2.65 goals provides a comfortable margin above this threshold.

Melgar have a significantly stronger home profile: they win 91% of their matches, score an average of 2.55 goals, and have not lost a single game, while Alianza Lima win 45% of their away fixtures. The hosts’ superiority is also evident in the quality of chances created: their average xG stands at 2.09 compared with the opponents’ 1.12, while shots on target average 7.27 against Alianza’s 3.09. Melgar held a lead at the break in 55% of matches and scored an average of 1.18 goals before half-time, whereas the visitors managed only 0.45 first-half goals and failed to score before the break in as many as 55% of cases. The hosts are also highly consistent defensively, conceding an average of 0.55 goals per match and just 0.27 before half-time. A half-time draw remains a realistic alternative, as both teams were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches; however, Melgar’s long-term advantage supports the HT/FT outcome of a home lead and victory.