Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Malavan: match statistics

Mes Shahr-e Babak have drawn 4 of their 5 league matches so far, including both home fixtures, which significantly increases the likelihood of another share of the points. The hosts average 0.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded at home, while keeping a clean sheet in 50% of such matches. Malavan have an equally modest attacking record away from home, also averaging 0.5 goals per game, and failed to score in half of their away fixtures. However, the visitors’ defense looks less reliable, as they concede an average of 2 goals per away game and have yet to keep a clean sheet. Both teams have scored just 3 goals in their last 5 matches, making a low-scoring draw the most logical scenario, with a slight preference for the hosts should the match produce a winner.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No, as the home side scores only 0.67 goals per match on average, while the visitors manage just 0.50. Mes Shahr-e Babak have failed to score in 67% of their matches, compared with 50% for Malavan, making the risk of at least one team ending the match without a goal clearly significant. The season BTTS rate stands at just 33% for the home side and 50% for the visitors, against a very low league average of 31%. In their last five matches, both teams averaged only 0.6 goals scored, despite conceding 1.4 each, which favors results such as 1:0, 0:1 or 0:0 rather than an open exchange of goals. Additionally, the league averages only 1.76 goals per match, making a scenario in which one of the teams fails to score more likely. BTTS - No means that at least one team does not score; it does not automatically imply a 0:0 result or that neither team will score.

Shahr-e Babak average just 0.67 goals per match, while Malavan average 0.50, limiting the baseline attacking potential of both sides. In their last five matches, each team scored an average of 0.6 goals, despite both conceding 1.4, making a result in the range of 1–2 goals the most likely outcome. Neither team has recorded a match with at least four goals so far, while the percentage of matches finishing under 3.5 goals stands at 100% for both the home and away sides. The league is also clearly low-scoring, averaging 1.76 goals with only 20% of matches going Over 2.5 goals, so Under 3.5 has the strongest statistical support.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Mes Shahr-e Babak victory, as the hosts have been level at the break in 67% of their matches so far, compared with 50% for Malavan. The first half should be cautious: Mes Shahr-e Babak have yet to score before the break and concede only 0.33 goals on average, while the league average is just 0.91 home goals per match. After half-time, the advantage shifts to the hosts, who score an average of 0.67 goals, whereas Malavan have yet to score in the second half and have lost it in 50% of cases. The hosts’ prospects of securing the full-time victory are further supported by the visitors’ defensive record: Malavan concede an average of 2.0 goals per match, compared with 1.0 for Mes Shahr-e Babak, and have suffered defeats in 60% of their last five appearances. However, Mes Shahr-e Babak’s high draw rate in their last five matches—80%—still leaves a significant probability of the draw/draw outcome.