Mes Soongoun vs Niroye Zamini: match statistics

Mes Soongoun holds a clear advantage in chance creation and possession at their stadium: home average xG is 1.92 versus Niroye Zamini's 0.73 xG away, and the hosts average 13.83 shots (6.5 on target) per match compared to 4.57 (1.86 on target) for the visitors. Despite this, the hosts have very low finishing efficiency — just 0.54 goals per home match with a 4% conversion rate and 54% of matches without scoring, while Niroye average 0.58 goals away with roughly 13% conversion and 50% of matches goalless. Defensively Mes Soongoun look stronger: they concede 0.69 goals per home match and keep 46% clean sheets, whereas Niroye concede 1.17 goals away and have only 25% clean sheets. In the last 5 fixtures the hosts scored 3 and conceded 2, recording 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss (1.6 points per game), while Niroye scored 4 and conceded 4 with a record of 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss (1.2 points per game), giving a slight form edge to the hosts. Considering the hosts' xG advantage and superior defense, but also their poor finishing, I expect a Mes Soongoun win, albeit in low-scoring terms.

Both teams have relatively low BTTS rates: Mes Soongoun 23%, Niroye Zamini 42%, versus a league average of 30%. Mes Soongoun scores 1.08 goals and concedes only 0.54 per match, keeping a clean sheet in 54% of games and conceding an average of 0.4 goals in the last 5 matches. Niroye Zamini scores just 0.58 goals per match, has xG_for 0.73 and only 1.86 shots on target per match, which limits their chances of scoring against the hosts' strong defense. Mes Soongoun generates 1.25 xG and 9.38 shots per match, while opponents register xG_against 1.60, so it is more likely the hosts will be creating chances rather than both teams scoring. In light of the hosts' 54% clean sheets and the visitors' low offensive averages, I predict No Goal (no BTTS) with a probability of 70% versus 30% for BTTS - Yes.

xG calculations indicate expected 1.43 goals for Mes Soongoun and 0.90 goals for Niroye Zamini (total 2.33), computed as averages: (1.25 + 1.60)/2 = 1.43 and (0.73 + 1.07)/2 = 0.90. With a combined lambda = 2.33 the Poisson model yields roughly a 68% chance of Over 1.5 goals, about 41% for Over 2.5 goals and around 21% for Over 3.5 goals. Match statistics support this outcome: the home side averages 4.5 shots on target and 9.38 total shots versus 1.86 and 4.57 for the visitors, and the homes’ conversion rate is 15% vs 13% for the away team, increasing the probability that Mes Soongoun will score at least two goals. At the same time seasonal over 2.5 percentages are low (23% for home and 25% for away) and the home team has 54% clean sheets versus 25% for the visitors, which weakens the signal for Over 2.5 and 3.5. Therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 — the most value option with about a 68% probability according to the model and the specific shots/xG statistics.

The most likely outcome is a draw at half-time: Mes Soongoun were level at the break in 67% of home matches, and Niroye Zamini were level in 64% of away games, so I expect an HT draw (around 65–67%). Despite the HT draw, the hosts look like the favorites for the final result – Mes Soongoun won 38% of home matches versus just 8% away wins for the visitors, with seasonal xG of 1.25 for the hosts versus 0.73 for the visitors and 4.5 shots on target compared to 1.86. The hosts are also difficult to break before the interval: they score on average 0.33 goals and concede 0.08 by half-time, and kept a clean sheet at half-time in 92% of home games, which increases the likelihood of a goalless or low-scoring HT draw. In the second half Mes Soongoun have better numbers (on average 1.08 goals in the 2nd half vs 0.73 for the visitors) and earn on average 1.25 points after the break compared to 0.91 for Niroye Zamini, therefore the scenario of a HT draw and a home win FT (X/1) I rate as the strongest signal and assign it a 38% probability; I distributed the remaining options to include draw-draw at 22% and hosts leading at half-time and winning 14%.