Metz vs Guingamp: match statistics

Metz are in significantly better current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches and collected 12 points, while Guingamp have failed to win during the same period, picking up just 1 point. The hosts have scored as many as 19 goals in their last five matches—an average of 3.8 per game—whereas the visitors have managed only 4, highlighting a huge difference in attacking efficiency. Metz have conceded 6 goals during this period, compared with Guingamp’s 10, meaning the visitors are also struggling to limit their opponents’ chances. Guingamp’s run consists of 4 defeats and a draw, while Metz have lost just once in their last five appearances. Although Guingamp sit higher in the table, the current scoring and results trends clearly point towards a Metz victory.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Guingamp’s poor attacking output: in their last five matches, the team averaged just 0.8 goals, with an average xG of 0.93. Metz are also in excellent form, having won 4 of their last 5 games and allowing opponents just 0.25 xG on average, despite conceding an average of 1.2 goals. The hosts scored as many as 19 goals during this period, or 3.8 per match, while Guingamp conceded 10 goals, strongly supporting the scenario of a Metz win without requiring the visitors to score. BTTS occurred in 80% of Metz’s last five matches, but in only 40% of Guingamp’s games, and the difference between the visitors’ attacking quality and the hosts’ defensive strength slightly shifts the forecast towards the outcome in which at least one team fails to score.

Metz have scored 19 goals in their last five matches, averaging 3.8 per game, while Guingamp have conceded 10 goals over the same period, an average of 2.0. This trend points to a home advantage, but it does not necessarily suggest a very high-scoring game, as Guingamp have scored only 0.8 goals per match themselves. In addition, Metz’s average xG from their last five outings is just 0.53, while Guingamp have created chances worth 0.93 xG, clearly tempering expectations following the hosts’ exceptionally high finishing efficiency. Metz matches went Over 2.5 goals in 100% of this sample, but the figure was only 40% for Guingamp, while the projected total of 2.35 goals more often points to a result in the 1-3 goal range. The strongest pick is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as this line leaves room for a 2-0, 2-1 or 3-0 Metz win.

Metz have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 3.8 goals and conceding just 1.2, while Guingamp have failed to win any of their last five games and scored only 0.8 goals per match. The hosts led at the break in 40% of these fixtures and never went into half-time trailing, which clearly limits the scenarios favourable to the visitors. In the first halves, Metz averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, whereas Guingamp recorded averages of 0.6 scored and 0.8 conceded. After the break, Metz’s advantage becomes even more pronounced: the hosts scored an average of 2.4 goals, while Guingamp managed only 0.2. Therefore, the most likely outcome is Metz leading at half-time and securing victory by the final whistle, corresponding to the HT/FT pick 1/1.