Miami FC II vs Tampa Bay Rowdies: match statistics
Miami FC II vs Tampa Bay Rowdies: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Miami FC II played against Tampa Bay Rowdies in USL Championship (United States). The game was played on July 25, 2026. Final score: 2:3.
Recent form
Miami FC II has 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.00 points per game. Tampa Bay Rowdies has 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 1.00 points per game.
Scoring records
Miami FC II scores 1.25 goals per game and allows 1.50. Tampa Bay Rowdies scores 1.56 and allows 0.81. Games in this league average 2.79 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 50% of Miami FC II's games and 44% of Tampa Bay Rowdies's. The Over 2.5 rates are 50% and 38%, compared with league averages of 58% for BTTS and 52% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Tampa Bay Rowdies has the higher season xG average, 1.77 to 1.34 per game. Miami FC II takes 11.3 shots per game, while Tampa Bay Rowdies takes 16.0.
First-half and second-half trends
Miami FC II leads at halftime in 25% of its games and scores 0.69 goals per game after halftime. Tampa Bay Rowdies leads at halftime in 56% and scores 0.75 after halftime.
When the teams score
Miami FC II's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (5 goals). For Tampa Bay Rowdies, it is minutes 76-90+ (9 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
USL Championship games average 2.79 goals. Both teams score in 58% of games, and 52% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 4 previous meetings were available. The record was 0 home wins, 0 draws and 4 away wins. Those games averaged 3.75 goals, with both teams scoring in 75% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The favorites are the visitors, Tampa Bay Rowdies: they sit 1st overall and away they have 9 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses with a +7 goal differential. Their key advantage is defense — just 0.38 goals conceded per away match and 63% clean sheets, whereas Miami FC II concede 1.75 goals per home match and have only 25% clean sheets. Miami can score at home, however: 1.75 goals per game, 4.13 shots on target and a higher conversion rate of 14% vs. the visitors’ 9%, and in their last 5 matches the hosts have scored 10 goals (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). xG slightly favors Rowdies as well: away xG 1.57 vs Miami’s home xG 1.48, and xG against 1.24 vs 1.68 indicates the visitors limit the quality of opponent chances. Considering Tampa’s defensive edge and away stability, I predict an away win, with probabilities: 60% away win, 25% draw, 15% home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Statistical analysis indicates a moderate likelihood for BTTS - Yes: home team have BTTS in 50% of their matches this season, away team in 38%, while the league average BTTS is 57%. The strongest argument against BTTS is the away side's defensive resilience — they concede just 0.38 goals per game on average and keep a clean sheet in 63% of matches, whereas the home team concedes 1.25 goals per game and have 24 goals conceded this season. The home attack is statistically dangerous: they score 1.88 goals and have xG 1.97 per game, and they scored 10 goals in the last 5 matches (2.0 per game). The away team have xG 2.19 in their last 5 matches but only scored 6 goals (1.2 per game), indicating some underperformance in finishing. Overall, the away team’s strong defensive record outweighs the home team’s attacking edge, so I recommend No Goal with a probability split of 70% No vs. 30% BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG analysis indicates approximately 1.61 xG for Miami FC II (attacking xG 1.97 vs conceded xG by Tampa Bay 1.24 => avg 1.61) and 1.31 xG for Tampa Bay Rowdies (attacking xG 1.57 vs conceded xG by Miami 1.04 => 1.31), totaling ~2.92 expected goals. Both teams have 100% of matches with at least one goal (seasonOver05 100%), and Miami’s matches finished over 1.5 goals in 75% of cases versus 63% for Tampa, which strongly supports the Over 1.5 line. Miami averages 17.88 shots and 5.88 on target with a 10% conversion rate, while Tampa averages 14.13 shots and 3.38 on target with a 9% conversion — this further increases the home side’s goal potential. Signals for the 2.5 line are mixed: Miami has 75% of matches over 2.5 season-to-date vs 0% for Tampa, and in the last 5 matches Over2.5 occurred in 40% for the home side and 20% for the away side, yielding a moderate probability for Over 2.5 (~66%). Over 3.5 looks less likely (expected 2.92 goals and Tampa’s season 0% in Over3.5), so the best and most strongly justified pick is Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I select the 1/2 scenario (home team leading at half-time, away team winning full-time) as the strongest signal because Miami FC II led at the break in 63% of their home matches (5 instances) and averages 1.00 first-half goals, while Tampa Bay records 0.63 goals by half-time. Tampa Bay, however, presents stronger full-match credentials: 63% wins this season and 2.25 points per game versus Miami’s 50% wins and 1.75 points per game; additionally they concede only 0.38 goals per game and have 63% clean sheets on the season — this increases their chance of a turnaround after the break. Miami generates more first-half chances (xG 1.97 and an average of 5.88 shots on target), which explains the potential HT lead, but Tampa have not conceded goals by half-time on the road (0.00 average) and score late goals (4 away goals in minutes 76–90), which supports comebacks. Therefore I assign a 30% probability to 1/2 as the strongest single scenario; overall the distribution is 55% for scenarios with the home team leading at HT, 20% for HT draws and 25% for away HT leads, which reflects the 1.00 vs 0.63 HT goals and 2.25 vs 1.75 points per game.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Miami FC II | Tampa Bay Rowdies | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 29% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Tampa Bay Rowdies is 25% better for: goals scored per game.
1.25 goals / game - Miami FC II · 1.56 goals / game - Tampa Bay Rowdies
Tampa Bay Rowdies is 85% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.5 goals / game - Miami FC II · 0.81 goals / game - Tampa Bay Rowdies
Miami FC II scores in 56% of games (9 of 16 meczów), while Tampa Bay Rowdies keeps a clean sheet in 50% (8 of 16 meczów).
Tampa Bay Rowdies scores in 94% of games (15 of 16 meczów), while Miami FC II keeps a clean sheet in 38% (6 of 16 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Miami FC II
Over / Under - Tampa Bay Rowdies
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Tampa Bay Rowdies is 53% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.31 pts / game - Miami FC II · 2 pts / game - Tampa Bay Rowdies
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Miami FC II - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 25% of games and wins 31%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.4 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Tampa Bay Rowdies - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 56% of games and wins 56%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Miami FC II
Tampa Bay Rowdies
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (USL Championship).
Teams vs league
| Miami FC II | Liga | Tampa Bay Rowdies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 2.75 | 2.79 | ▼ 2.38 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 58% | ▼ 44% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 52% | ▼ 38% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 38% | 26% | ▲ 50% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 56% | 67% | ▲ 69% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 69% | 80% | ▼ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Record from Miami FC II's perspective: 0 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses against Tampa Bay Rowdies. Games average 3.75 goals, and both teams scored in 75% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Miami FC II vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
The USL Championship match finished Miami FC II 2:3 Tampa Bay Rowdies. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Miami FC II and Tampa Bay Rowdies?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Miami FC II won 0, Tampa Bay Rowdies won 4 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.75 goals, with both teams scoring in 75% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Miami FC II vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
Miami FC II score 1.25 goals per game on average and Tampa Bay Rowdies 1.56. The USL Championship average is 2.79 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Miami FC II's matches and 44% of Tampa Bay Rowdies's.
What form are Miami FC II and Tampa Bay Rowdies in?
Over the last 5 games Miami FC II have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Miami FC II vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.