Mil Mugan FK vs Qarabağ: match statistics
Qarabağ are clear favorites for this match, sitting in 2nd place in the standings with an impressive record of 13 wins this season. The visitors win a staggering 75% of their away matches, scoring an average of 2.38 goals per game while conceding just 1 goal on average. Mil Mugan FK are in 9th position, with very poor home form - only 11% of home matches won and a negative goal difference (-5). The hosts have not won any of their last 5 matches, scoring just 4 goals, while Qarabağ dominate possession (64%) and average 14.5 shots per away game. The class difference between the teams is huge, as confirmed by all key statistics - from shooting efficiency to xG values, making a decisive away victory the most likely scenario.
Mil Mugan FK vs Qarabağ: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Mil Mugan FK played against Qarabağ in Premyer Liqası (Azerbaijan). The game was played on February 14, 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Recent form
Mil Mugan FK has 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 0.60 points per game. Qarabağ has 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses, with 1.80 points per game.
Scoring records
Mil Mugan FK scores 0.95 goals per game and allows 1.16. Qarabağ scores 1.84 and allows 0.68. Games in this league average 2.56 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 32% of Mil Mugan FK's games and 42% of Qarabağ's. The Over 2.5 rates are 37% and 37%, compared with league averages of 46% for BTTS and 49% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Qarabağ has the higher season xG average, 1.96 to 0.93 per game. Mil Mugan FK takes 7.4 shots per game, while Qarabağ takes 15.4.
First-half and second-half trends
Mil Mugan FK leads at halftime in 16% of its games and scores 0.63 goals per game after halftime. Qarabağ leads at halftime in 42% and scores 1.11 after halftime.
When the teams score
Mil Mugan FK's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (6 goals). For Qarabağ, it is minutes 76-90+ (11 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Premyer Liqası games average 2.56 goals. Both teams score in 46% of games, and 49% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 0 draws and 1 away win. Those games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Qarabağ are clear favorites for this match, sitting in 2nd place in the standings with an impressive record of 13 wins this season. The visitors win a staggering 75% of their away matches, scoring an average of 2.38 goals per game while conceding just 1 goal on average. Mil Mugan FK are in 9th position, with very poor home form - only 11% of home matches won and a negative goal difference (-5). The hosts have not won any of their last 5 matches, scoring just 4 goals, while Qarabağ dominate possession (64%) and average 14.5 shots per away game. The class difference between the teams is huge, as confirmed by all key statistics - from shooting efficiency to xG values, making a decisive away victory the most likely scenario.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Mil Mugan FK | Qarabağ | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Qarabağ is 200% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / game - Mil Mugan FK · 1.8 pts / game - Qarabağ
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Qarabağ is 94% better for: goals scored per game.
0.95 goals / game - Mil Mugan FK · 1.84 goals / game - Qarabağ
Qarabağ is 71% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.16 goals / game - Mil Mugan FK · 0.68 goals / game - Qarabağ
Mil Mugan FK scores in 53% of games (10 of 19 meczów), while Qarabağ keeps a clean sheet in 47% (9 of 19 meczów).
Qarabağ scores in 84% of games (16 of 19 meczów), while Mil Mugan FK keeps a clean sheet in 37% (7 of 19 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Mil Mugan FK
Over / Under - Qarabağ
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Qarabağ is 51% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.11 pts / game - Mil Mugan FK · 1.68 pts / game - Qarabağ
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Mil Mugan FK - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 16% of games and wins 26%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.4 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Qarabağ - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 42% of games and wins 68%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Mil Mugan FK
Qarabağ
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premyer Liqası).
Teams vs league
| Mil Mugan FK | Liga | Qarabağ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.11 | 2.56 | • 2.53 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 32% | 46% | ▼ 42% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 37% | 49% | ▼ 37% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 37% | 31% | ▲ 47% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 47% | 68% | ▲ 74% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 79% | 74% | ▲ 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Mil Mugan FK's perspective: 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss against Qarabağ. Games average 2.00 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Mil Mugan FK vs Qarabağ?
The Premyer Liqası match finished Mil Mugan FK 0:1 Qarabağ. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Mil Mugan FK vs Qarabağ?
Mil Mugan FK score 0.95 goals per game on average and Qarabağ 1.84. The Premyer Liqası average is 2.56 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 49% of games. Both teams score in 32% of Mil Mugan FK's matches and 42% of Qarabağ's.
What form are Mil Mugan FK and Qarabağ in?
Over the last 5 games Mil Mugan FK have a 0-3-2 record (0.60 points per game) and Qarabağ 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Mil Mugan FK vs Qarabağ?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.