Mirassol vs Flamengo: match statistics

Flamengo sit 2nd, while Mirassol are only 16th, and the visitors’ full-season record stands at 12 wins, 6 draws and just 3 defeats. Flamengo are unbeaten in their last five matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding only 2, whereas Mirassol have won just once, scoring 5 goals and conceding 7. Away from home, Flamengo average 1.82 goals per match and concede 0.91, while Mirassol score 1.36 goals at home and allow opponents 1.18. The visitors are also clearly more clinical, converting 14% of their shots into goals compared with 9% for the hosts, and they keep a clean sheet in 36% of away matches, compared with just 9% for Mirassol at home. Mirassol do create more high-quality chances at their own stadium, with an average xG of 1.71 versus Flamengo’s 1.43 away from home, but current form and defensive solidity point to an away victory.

The signal for BTTS - No is primarily driven by Flamengo’s current defensive form: it has conceded only 2 goals in its last 5 matches, an average of 0.4 per game, with allowed xG at 1.03. Mirassol does average 1.9 goals and produces 1.92 xG at home, but it has scored just 5 goals in its last five outings, averaging 1.0, while its xG has dropped to 1.28. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches this season, while their overall BTTS rate is only 40%, well below the league average of 56%. Flamengo is in excellent attacking form, averaging 2.2 goals and 1.92 xG across its last 5 matches, so the most likely scenario is a Flamengo goal with Mirassol potentially failing to score. The “No” pick is therefore marginally stronger, as there are solid grounds to expect at least one team—primarily the hosts—to finish the match without scoring.

Mirassol scores an average of 1.90 goals at home and creates chances worth 1.92 xG, but its output has dropped to 1.0 goal per game over the last five matches. Flamengo are in excellent form: they have scored 11 goals in their last five outings, conceded just 0.4 goals per match, and recorded an average xG of 1.92. At the same time, both defenses have been solid over the season, with Mirassol conceding an average of 0.80 goals and Flamengo 0.91. Over 3.5 goals has landed in only 20% of Mirassol's matches and 18% of Flamengo's, while the under 3.5 line has been recorded in 80% and 82% of cases, respectively. The attacking potential of both sides should be enough to produce at least two goals, but the results profile and defensive quality more clearly support Under 3.5.

Mirassol have posted very solid numbers at home throughout the season, averaging 1.9 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded per match, but their current form has clearly weakened: across their last five games, they have averaged 1.0 goal and won only 20% of their matches. Flamengo remain unbeaten in their last five outings, recording a 60% win rate, averaging 2.2 goals scored and conceding just 0.4 per game. A balanced first half is likely, as Mirassol have conceded an average of only 0.2 goals before the break this season, while Flamengo have allowed opponents to score just 0.2 goals in this period across their last five matches. After the break, the visitors should gradually take control: Flamengo have recently averaged 1.4 goals in the second half, whereas Mirassol have managed just 0.2 and have lost this half in 60% of their matches. The HT/FT draw/Flamengo win scenario best combines the hosts’ cautious start with their opponents’ clearly superior current form and stronger finishing performances.