Mirassol vs Remo: match statistics

Mirassol holds clear advantages in home metrics: they average 1.3 goals at home with 5.8 shots on target and 16.2 total shots, while Remo averages 3.3 shots on target, 11.4 total shots and 1.0 goals per away match. The defensive gap is significant: Remo concedes 2.1 goals per away game and has 32 goals conceded this season with an away goal difference of -11, whereas Mirassol concedes 1.2 goals at home and has 25 goals conceded with a home goal difference of +1. This is corroborated by chance-quality indicators — Mirassol generates 1.76 xG in home matches versus 1.32 xG against, while Remo produces only 1.21 xG away with an xG against of 1.65, suggesting a home advantage in creating better chances and increased defensive risk for the visitors. Although both teams have 3 wins in their last 5 matches and average 1.8 points in that period, note that Remo failed to score in 60% of away games, while Mirassol failed to score in only 20% of home matches. Based on this, I forecast a Mirassol win; suggested probabilities are 60% home, 25% draw and 15% away.

Mirassol at home has a seasonal BTTS rate of 67%, while Remo away records BTTS in only 40%, and the league average BTTS is 57% — giving a moderate edge to the both teams to score scenario. However, Remo concedes on average 2.1 goals per match with xG against 1.65, whereas Mirassol creates xG 1.30 and registers an average of 4.22 shots on target, so the hosts have a realistic chance of breaching Remo’s defense. Conversely, Remo have failed to score in 60% of away games, a strong factor reducing BTTS probability; their low clean sheet rate (10%) means they concede more often than they keep a clean sheet. In the last 5 matches Remo have BTTS 60% with averages of 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded, while Mirassol in their last 5 have BTTS 40% with 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded, which together provide a moderate but clear signal toward both teams scoring. Considering Mirassol’s home advantage (BTTS 67% and xG 1.30) and Remo’s defensive vulnerability (2.1 conceded and xG against 1.65), I assess BTTS probability at around 62% vs 38% and recommend the 'yes' bet.

Mirassol scores on average 1.22 goals per match and concedes 1.22, while Remo scores 1.00 and concedes as many as 2.10 goals per match, indicating greater defensive vulnerability from the visitors. xG values are 1.30 for Mirassol and 1.21 for Remo, with xG against of 1.56 (Mirassol) and 1.65 (Remo); averaging these metrics yields a projection of roughly 1.48 goals for the home side and 1.39 for the away side (total 2.87). Seasonal shares of matches over 1.5 goals are 78% for Mirassol and 80% for Remo, and Over 0.5 occurs 100%/90%, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (approx. 78% probability). I assess Over 2.5 at about 55% given the combined xG of 2.87 and the fact that in the last 5 matches Remo has 80% of games over 2.5 (Mirassol 40%). Over 3.5 is unlikely (~32%) in line with seasonal shares of 22% and 30% for the two teams.

Mirassol led at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches (60%), while Remo did not lead in any of their last 5 (0%), giving the home side an advantage in the first half. Seasonally Mirassol averages 0.67 goals by half-time and 1.22 goals per match, whereas Remo has 0.4 goals by half-time and 1.0 per match; additionally Remo concedes on average 1.1 goals by the break and 2.1 goals per match. Mirassol produces higher xG (1.30 vs 1.21) and more shots on target (4.22 vs 3.3), confirming greater threat to the visitors’ goal before half-time. Considering Mirassol averaged 2.0 points by half-time in their last 5 matches versus Remo’s 0.8, and that the visitors are more prone to conceding, the most likely scenario is the home side leading at the break and maintaining the win to full-time (1/1). At the same time, the seasonal 67% rate of home half-time draws justifies a moderate probability for scenarios with a draw at 45 minutes (hence meaningful value for x/1 and x/x).