Moi Kompong Dewa vs Boeung Ket: match statistics

Boeung Ket appears to be the favorite: they sit 4th vs 6th Moi Kompong Dewa and have 11 wins in the season vs the hosts' 9 wins. The visitors' defense looks better statistically — Boeung Ket conceded 19 goals this season, Moi Kompong Dewa 33; on average the visitors concede 1.18 goals away vs 1.64 conceded by the hosts at home. In the last 5 matches the visitors scored 7 and conceded 2 (3 wins, 2 draws) and record 2.2 points per match, while the hosts scored 5 and conceded 8 (2 wins, 3 losses) only 1.2 points per match. Despite the hosts having greater possession (52% vs 47%), Boeung Ket attempt more shots (12.18 vs 11.4) and have a higher conversion rate (11% vs 9%), and xG 1.54 vs 1.35 confirms the visitors create higher-quality chances. Considering form, lower goals conceded (19 vs 33) and higher efficiency, I forecast an away win; probabilities estimated: home 15%, draw 25%, away 60%.

Seasonal data favors No Goal: Moi Kompong Dewa have BTTS in 38% of matches and keep a clean sheet in 54% of fixtures, while Boeung Ket register BTTS in only 18%, so both teams are below the league BTTS average of 55%. Goal averages suggest limited goal exchange — the home side score 1.15 and concede 0.46 on average, the visitors score 1.36 and concede 1.18; this is below the league average of 3.13 goals per game. xG indicates both teams create roughly 1.3–1.6 xG (1.36 for the home team vs 1.54 for the visitors) and defenses are expected to concede ~1.36–1.62 xG, which does not confirm a Goal/Goal outcome. The last 5 matches provide a moderate warning — both teams have 40% BTTS in their last 5, but Moi Kompong Dewa conceded 8 goals in the last 5 (1.6 per game), whereas Boeung Ket conceded only 2 (0.4), still suggesting at least one side has a realistic chance of a clean sheet. Considering the home side’s seasonal 54% clean sheets, low BTTS of 38%/18% and recent goal patterns, I assess a 30% probability of BTTS - Yes and 70% for No Goal, therefore I pick "No".

Based on xG I estimate approximately 1.49 goals for Moi Kompong Dewa (xG_for 1.36 vs Boeung Ket xG_against 1.62 → average 1.49) and 1.45 for Boeung Ket (xG_for 1.54 vs home xG_against 1.36 → average 1.45), giving a total of 2.94 goals. The 2.94 total is 1.44 goals above the 1.5 line and 0.44 goals above the 2.5 line, so there is a very strong signal for Over 1.5 and a moderate signal for Over 2.5. Seasonal stats partially support this: Over 1.5 occurs for hosts in 54% and for away teams in 73% of matches, while Over 2.5 occurs only in 23% and 45% of matches (league overall has 57% Over 2.5). Additionally, in the last 5 matches Moi Kompong Dewa concede on average 1.6 goals, and Boeung Ket only 0.4 goals, which increases the risk of goals for the hosts and the probability of at least 2 goals in the match. For these reasons I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the strongest signal; Over 3.5 looks unlikely (seasonOver35: 8% hosts, 18% away).

I forecast a half-time draw and a home win at full-time (X/1). At half-time the most likely scenario is a draw: hosts have been level at the break in 62% of their matches, visitors in 27%, yielding an average of approximately 44–45% probability for an HT draw; additionally, hosts concede only 0.08 goals on average by half-time and have kept a half-time clean sheet in 92% of games. After the break hosts earn an average of 1.54 points in second halves versus 1.18 points for visitors, and although visitors score slightly more goals after half-time (0.91 vs 0.69), the second-half points balance favors the home side. Over the full match hosts average 1.15 goals scored and 0.46 conceded, with clean sheets in 54% of matches, while visitors concede 1.18 on average and have 36% of matches with a clean sheet; this makes the X/1 scenario the strongest signal.