Moi Kompong Dewa vs Cambodia Tiger: match statistics

I predict an away win (Cambodia Tiger): in the last 5 matches the visitors have won 4, while Moi Kompong Dewa won 2, and points per game in that run are 2.4 vs 1.4. Cambodia’s attack is clearly more efficient — the visitors score 2.00 goals on average away and have 65 goals this season, while the hosts score 1.14 at home and have 39 goals; shot conversion is 17% vs the hosts’ 10%. Although the hosts have higher possession (51% vs 44%) and a similar number of shots on target (4.31 vs 4.14), the visitors’ higher xG (1.46 vs 1.32) indicates they create better scoring opportunities. Defensively both teams concede around 1.6 goals per game (hosts 1.64, visitors 1.57), but the hosts failed to score in 43% of their home matches versus only 21% of Cambodia’s away games, increasing the risk of no return. Additionally the visitors win 50% of their away matches vs 21% home wins for the hosts, and goal difference is +6 away for Cambodia vs -7 for the hosts, therefore the most likely outcome is an away victory.

Data point to BTTS - Yes: seasonal BTTS rates are 50% for Moi Kompong Dewa and 57% for Cambodia Tiger, with a league BTTS baseline of 56%. The signal is stronger in short form — hosts recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, visitors in 60%. Both teams regularly score and concede: Moi Kompong Dewa average 2.64 goals scored and concede 1.21 season-to-date; Cambodia Tiger score 2.00 and concede 1.57, while in the last 5 matches hosts conceded an average 1.8 goals. xG and shot metrics confirm potential for goal exchange — hosts xG 2.05 versus opponents’ xG against the visitors 1.35, average shots 17.57 vs 11.86 and shots on target 5.93 vs 4.14, with hosts’ opponents generating 2.26 xG on average in their last 5. Given the hosts’ 80% BTTS in their last 5, the visitors’ low clean sheets (21%), and the high share of games over 2.5 goals (64% for hosts, 71% for visitors), I assign a 75% probability to BTTS (Yes) and 25% to No Goal.

The xG-and-defensive model projects 1.70 expected goals for the home side (attacking xG 2.05 vs opponent’s xG against 1.35) and 1.43 for the visitors (attacking xG 1.46 vs home xG against 1.39), totaling 3.13 goals. Seasonally, Moi Kompong Dewa have 79% of matches with over 1.5 goals, Cambodia Tiger 93%, and the league averages 3.15 goals per game, all of which favor higher-scoring outcomes. With a combined expected 3.13 goals, a Poisson model yields ~82% probability for Over 1.5, ~61% for Over 2.5 and ~38% for Over 3.5; seasonal rates of 64–71% for Over 2.5 and 50% for Over 3.5 corroborate a moderate chance for Over 2.5 and a lower chance for Over 3.5. Additionally, the home team averages 17.57 shots (5.93 on target) with a conversion rate of 15%, while the visitors average 11.86 shots (4.14 on target) with a 17% conversion, which further supports the likelihood of additional goals. The strongest and most consistent signal is Over 1.5 (selection: over, line 1.5) due to the highest probability of ~82% and alignment between xG and seasonal indicators of 79%/93%.

The strongest signal points to 2/1 (away team leads at half-time, home team wins at full-time), because the away side led at the break in 57% of this season’s matches and in 60% of their last five games. However, the home team is very effective after the break — they score on average 1.64 goals in the second half while the visitors concede 1.00 goal after half-time, creating conditions for a turnaround. Additionally, the home side produces higher-quality attack: 2.05 xG versus 1.46 for the away team and 17.57 shots per match versus 11.86, which corroborates the potential to change the result in the second half. On the other hand, the visitors show excellent short-term form (last five matches: 80% wins versus 40% for the hosts), so I assume they will more often lead at the break (combined 58% probability for options with the away team leading at half-time), while the most likely scenario remains a draw at half-time followed by a home win at full-time.