Monastir vs Club Africain: match statistics

The favorite to win is Club Africain: the visitors have 15 wins this season versus Monastir’s 8 and have scored 34 goals compared to the hosts’ 22. In the last 5 matches Club has scored 11 goals and averages 2.4 points per game, while Monastir has scored only 4 goals and averages 1.6 points per game in that period. Defensively the visitors hold a clear advantage — Club concedes an average of 0.27 goals away and has 73% clean sheets on the road, and has conceded 8 goals across the season, whereas Monastir at home concedes 0.45 goals per match, has 55% clean sheets and 14 goals conceded this season. The hosts, however, dominate possession (56% vs 52%) and register more on-target shots at home (3.82 vs 3.14), and xG is similar: 1.09 for Monastir at home versus 1.15 for Club away, indicating Monastir creates chances but has lower efficiency (15% vs 17%). Considering the visitors’ 15 wins, 11 goals in the last 5 matches and superior defensive security away, I assign a 55% chance to the visitors to win, 25% to a draw and 20% to the hosts winning.

The chance of BTTS looks low: this season Monastir has a BTTS rate of 33%, Club Africain just 18%, and the league average is 26%, meaning fewer than one in three encounters end BTTS. Additionally, both sides frequently keep clean sheets — Monastir has 67% of matches without conceding, Club Africain 73%, and in the league as many as 93% of games feature at least one clean sheet — a strong signal against BTTS. Offensively Monastir produces higher xG (1.99 vs 1.15 xG for the Club) and averages 7.25 shots on target to the visitors' 3.14; the visitors are however efficient with shots (conversion rate 17% vs 12%), yet season-long conceded goals averages are low (0.42 and 0.27) and xG against are only 0.78 and 0.89, which limits the total number of goal-scoring opportunities. In the last 5 matches both teams have 0% BTTS: Monastir scored 4 goals (0.8 per match) and conceded 1 (0.2), while Club Africain scored 11 goals (2.2 per match) and conceded 1 (0.2), showing that despite the visitors' better scoring form opponents still rarely score. Considering the 33% and 18% season BTTS, 67%/73% clean sheets, the league 93% and 0% BTTS in the last five matches for both teams, I forecast BTTS - No as more likely — 82% vs 18% for Yes.

Based on xG we get approximately 1.44 goals for Monastir (xG_for_home 1.99 vs xG_conceded_away 0.89) and 0.97 for Club Africain (xG_for_away 1.15 vs xG_conceded_home 0.78), total 2.41 goals. A Poisson distribution with λ=2.41 yields probability for Over 1.5 around 69%, Over 2.5 around 43% and Over 3.5 around 22%. Monastir at home scores on average 1.83 goals and records 7.25 shots on target (shotsOnTargetAVG_home 7.25, shotsAVG_home 15.42), which increases the chance of at least two goals in the match. Club Africain have low BTTS rates away (18%) and high clean sheets (73%), but the visitors’ last 5 matches include 11 goals and xG 2.07, which raises their offensive potential. As a result, the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (highest probability ~69%), so I recommend playing Over at the 1.5 line.

At half-time I expect a low score: Monastir scores on average 0.58 goals in the first half, Club Africain 0.45, and a clean sheet at the break occurs in 83% of Monastir’s matches and 82% of the visitors’ matches, which favors a draw at the break. In the second half the hosts are clearly more dangerous – Monastir averages 1.25 goals after the break and has 92% of matches with at least one goal in second halves, while the visitors have 0.64 and 55%, so most goals come after the break and more often in favor of the hosts. xG confirms Monastir’s advantage: home xG is 1.99 versus 1.15 for the visitors, and the visitors concede 0.89 xG against compared to 0.78 for the hosts; additionally the hosts average 7.25 shots on target versus 3.14. Considering Monastir are level at half-time in 50% of matches, lead at the break in 42% and win second halves in 75% of cases with a +12 goal differential in second halves, the most likely HT/FT scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1).