Montana vs CSKA Sofia: match statistics

CSKA Sofia is the clear favorite in this match: they have 41 goals scored this season versus Montana’s 15 and sit 4th in the table compared to the hosts’ 16th place. The form gap is stark — Montana have lost all 5 of their last matches, scoring just 1 and conceding 8, while CSKA have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 3 and averaging 2.4 points per match over that period. In attack and chance creation CSKA dominate: away xG 1.80 versus Montana’s home xG 1.22, average shots 14.36 vs 9.92, shots on target 4.14 vs 3.15, with possession 56% vs 43%. Defensively CSKA also look stronger — Montana concede 1.46 goals at home on average (44 this season), while CSKA concede 1.00 on the road (22 this season), which, combined with superior shot metrics, gives the visitors the edge and leads me to back their victory.

I select the 'no' scenario because in the last 5 matches Montana scored only 1 goal (0.2 per match) and conceded 8 goals (1.6 per match), while CSKA in the same period scored 8 goals (1.6 per match) and conceded 3 (0.6 per match). These forms translate into a very low rate of matches with both teams scoring: Montana has 20% BTTS in their last five, and CSKA has 0% BTTS in their last five. Seasonal indicators further support a lack of BTTS — CSKA away BTTS is 29% versus Montana at home 50%, and the league-wide clean sheet rate is as high as 70%, suggesting that often only one side finishes without conceding. Although Montana generates more season xG (2.25 vs 1.8) and shots (18.57 vs 14.36), their recent finishing is poor (0.2 goals per match in the last five), so seasonal xG advantages are not translating into actual goals now. Considering Montana's 0.2 goals in the last 5, CSKA's 0% BTTS and the league's 70% clean sheets, I assess the probability of BTTS 'no' at 75% and 'yes' at 25%.

Based on xG, Montana is expected to score 1.77 goals (xG attack 2.25 vs CSKA conceded xG 1.28) and CSKA 1.36 goals (xG attack 1.80 vs Montana defense 0.92), total 3.13. With that total the Poisson distribution gives probability for Over 1.5 at ~82%, Over 2.5 at ~61% and Over 3.5 at ~38%. Additionally, Montana at home averages 18.57 shots (6.07 on target) versus CSKA 14.36 (4.14 on target), and conversion rates are 10% vs 8%, which supports xG being realized as goals. Season rates for matches Over 1.5 are 64% (Montana) and 71% (CSKA), confirming both teams’ tendency to reach at least two goals, although Montana’s last 5 matches show only 0.2 goals per game, which is a risk. Considering the computed probabilities, the home side’s offensive edge and shot intensity, the strongest signal is Over 1.5.

The most likely scenario is Montana leading at half-time and the home side winning (1/1). Montana led at the break in 50% of their home matches, while CSKA were leading in 36% of their away games; the home team average half-time goals are 0.71 scored and 0.29 conceded, whereas the visitors average 0.57 scored and 0.43 conceded by half-time. Seasonal figures confirm Montana’s advantage: on average 1.79 goals per match versus CSKA’s 1.14, higher xG of 2.25 versus 1.80 and more shots on target 6.07 versus 4.14, which increases the likelihood of sustaining the lead. Additionally, Montana scores more often in the second half—an average of 1.07 goals after the break compared to CSKA’s 0.57—so a draw or a turnaround after half-time appears less likely than maintaining the win. For these reasons I select 1/1 as the strongest signal from the available data.