Montana vs Ludogorets II: match statistics

Montana have the home advantage: they have won 60% of their home matches, scoring an average of 1.6 goals, while Ludogorets II have won 33% of their away fixtures and scored 0.83 goals per game. The hosts also create more chances, with an average home xG of 1.48 compared with the visitors’ 1.04 away from home, and record 4.8 shots on target per match against 2.5. Montana’s main concern is their defense: they have conceded 15 goals and lost four of their last five matches. Ludogorets II have conceded only 4 goals over the same period, but have failed to score in half of their away matches. Montana’s attacking edge and strong home results point to a home win, although their recent form makes this prediction less certain.

The strongest signal in favor of BTTS - No is Ludogorets II’s limited attacking output: the visitors failed to score in 50% of their matches and average 0.83 goals per game. Montana did keep a clean sheet in 0% of its matches, but scored an average of just 0.6 goals across its last 5 games. The visitors concede an average of 0.83 goals per game this season and 0.8 over their last 5 matches, increasing the risk that the hosts will fail to score. Season-long BTTS rates also differ considerably—75% for Montana and 17% for Ludogorets II—while the figures across their last 5 matches were 20% and 40%, respectively. Therefore, it is more likely that at least one team will fail to score, although Montana’s poor defending leaves the visitors with a chance to find the net.

The Under 3.5 goals line has the strongest support in the results: every match played so far by both teams in the samples considered has ended with no more than three goals. Montana average 1.00 goals scored, while Ludogorets II average 0.83; their average xG figures are also similar, at 1.06 and 1.04 respectively. In addition, 75% of Montana's matches and 83% of the visitors' matches have finished Under 2.5 goals, pointing to a moderate goal total. The risk of a higher-scoring game is increased by the hosts' recent defensive struggles, having conceded 15 goals in five matches, so Under 3.5 goals is the safer option compared with Under 2.5.

A half-time draw is the most likely outcome: Ludogorets II were level at the break in 4 of their 6 matches, while Montana were level in 2 of 4. The visitors averaged just 0.33 goals before half-time, while the hosts have failed to score in the first half in each of their last 5 matches, limiting the chances of them taking the lead at the break. Ludogorets II to win after half-time is supported by a clear difference in recent form: Montana lost 4 of their last 5 matches and conceded an average of 3 goals, while the visitors conceded 0.8. In the second halves of these matches, the hosts conceded an average of 1.8 goals and the visitors 0.4, making a half-time draw followed by a Ludogorets II win the most strongly supported scenario.