Monterey Bay vs Tulsa Roughnecks: match statistics

Monterey Bay have yet to win at home (0 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses) and have failed to score in home matches (home goals average 0, FTS 100%), which severely limits their point potential. Tulsa holds a clear offensive edge: 9 goals this season versus 3 for Monterey, averaging 1.67 goals away and 5.33 shots on target per away match, while the hosts register only 2.33 shots on target and a 0% conversion rate. xG also favors the visitors (1.66 xG away vs 1.19 xG for hosts at home), and possession (50% vs 40%) plus Tulsa’s 6 goals in the last 5 matches versus Monterey’s 3 confirm superior quality of chances. Both teams concede 1.33 goals per match on average, but Monterey have shipped 9 goals in the last 5 fixtures and average just 0.4 points per match in that period compared to Tulsa’s 1.0, so the away side is the clear favorite.

Statistical analysis supports BTTS: season BTTS rate is 50% for Monterey Bay and 67% for Tulsa, with BTTS at 60% in the last 5 matches for both teams. Tulsa generates 1.66 xG per match versus Monterey Bay’s 1.36 xG, records more shots (13.67 vs 11.75) and more shots on target (5.33 vs 3.25) with conversion rates of 12% vs 9%. Both teams also concede regularly — in the last 5 matches Monterey conceded an average of 1.8 goals per game, Tulsa 1.6, and seasonally Monterey has conceded 13 goals versus Tulsa’s 8. Additionally Tulsa has no clean sheets (0% CS) and Monterey only 25% CS, increasing the likelihood of goal exchange, while the league BTTS average is 52%. Given Tulsa’s 67% BTTS, the 60% BTTS in the last 5 for both teams, higher xG and Tulsa’s 5.33 shots on target, the strongest signal is BTTS - Yes.

I project 1.32 xG for Monterey Bay and 1.36 xG for Tulsa, totaling 2.68 xG (calculated as attack vs defense averages: 1.36 vs 1.28 → 1.32 for the home side; 1.66 vs 1.05 → 1.36 for the away side). Tulsa averages 5.33 shots on target per match with a 12% conversion, while Monterey records 3.25 SOT and a 9% conversion, which increases the realistic chances that the visitors will score. Seasonal Over 1.5 stats are 50% for Monterey and 100% for Tulsa, and the league average goals is 2.63, therefore Over 1.5 is the strongest play signal. Over 2.5 has moderate support — season Over 2.5 is 25%/33% for home/away, but the projected xG=2.68 and league-wide 51% Over 2.5 imply roughly a 58% probability for Over 2.5. Over 3.5 looks unlikely (seasonal 25–33%), so Under 3.5 has the edge.

Both teams rarely score before the break: Monterey averages 0.25 goals at half-time and keeps a half-time clean sheet in 75% of matches, while Tulsa averages 0.33 goals at half-time and led at the break in 33% of games (scoredAVGHT_home = 0.25, seasonCSPercentageHT_home = 75.0, scoredAVGHT_away = 0.33, leadingAtHTPercentage_away = 33.0). The visitors hold a clear offensive advantage: higher xG 1.66 versus 1.36, more on-target shots 5.33 vs 3.25 and a better conversion rate 12% vs 9%, which increases their ability to score after the break. In the second half Tulsa is markedly more dangerous — averaging 2.33 goals in second halves with second-half goals in 100% of matches and winning the second half in 67% (AVG_2hg_away = 2.33, over05_2hg_percentage_away = 100.0, wins_2hg_percentage_away = 67.0), while Monterey records 1.5 and 25% respectively. Considering the low number of goals at half-time (AVGHT_home = 0.5, AVGHT_away = 0.67) and the visitors’ strong second-half performance, my primary pick is X/2 (draw at half-time, away win at full-time) with an assigned probability of 36%; alternatively the distribution supports X/X (18%) and 2/2 (22%), and I assess Monterey leading at the break as unlikely (leadingAtHTPercentage_home = 0.0).