Monterrey vs Pachuca: match statistics

Monterrey possess clear home advantages: on average 1.82 goals per game, xG 1.68, 5.65 shots on target and 59% possession; they win 53% of home matches and have a +12 goal difference at home. Pachuca on the road scores 1.25 goals on average, xG 1.42, 4.25 shots on target and 51% possession, with an away shot conversion rate of 9% versus Monterrey’s 12%. Monterrey fail to score in only 12% of home games, while Pachuca fail to score in 31% of away matches; clean sheets for the home side occur in 35% of games versus 19% for the visitors. However, recent form over the last five matches favors Pachuca: Monterrey have not won any of their last 5 (ddlld, averaging 0.6 points per game, 6 goals scored and 8 conceded), while Pachuca have 3 wins and 2 draws in that period (averaging 2.2 points per game, 10 goals scored and 6 conceded). Considering Monterrey’s superiority in quality of chances and home efficiency alongside Pachuca’s strong run of form, I give a slight edge to the hosts and forecast a Monterrey win.

Both teams have season BTTS rates of 53% (Monterrey) and 56% (Pachuca), while the league BTTS rate is 59%, suggesting a bias toward Goal/Goal outcomes. The signal from the last 5 matches is even stronger: Monterrey had BTTS in 80% of their last 5 appearances, and Pachuca in 100%, with average goals in those five matches of 1.2 for Monterrey and 2.0 for Pachuca and average goals conceded 1.6 and 1.2 respectively. xG and shots data confirm offensive potential — season xG is 1.55 (Monterrey) vs 1.42 (Pachuca), average shots 14.76 vs 13.69 and shots on target 4.94 vs 4.25 with conversion rates of 10% and 9%. Additionally, low clean sheet expected percentages of 24% and 19%, and season goals for 58 (Monterrey) and 46 (Pachuca) and goals against 51 and 37 indicate both teams regularly score and concede. Based on this, the BTTS = 'Yes' scenario is the strongest, so I assign it an 80% probability versus 20% for 'No'.

Both teams have a high rate of matches over 1.5 goals: Monterrey records Over 1.5 in 76% of home games, while Pachuca does so in 75% of away matches, which signals a strong edge for over 1.5 goals. xG analysis shows attacking values of 1.55 (Monterrey) and 1.42 (Pachuca) with xGAgainst of 1.07 and 1.39; averaged, this translates to projected 1.47 goals for Monterrey and 1.25 for Pachuca (total 2.72). In the last 5 matches both teams have 60% of games over 2.5 goals, and Pachuca averaged 2.0 goals across those five (Monterrey 1.2), increasing the likelihood of at least two strikes. For the 2.5 line the stats provide only a slight edge (53% Monterrey vs 50% Pachuca -> roughly 52% for the over), while for 3.5 the probability falls to about 22% (18% vs 25%), therefore the best and strongest recommendation is to play Over 1.5.

The most likely scenario is Monterrey leading at half-time and winning at full-time (1/1) — I assign it a 33% probability, because Monterrey led at the break in 41% of matches this season and in 60% of their last 5 games. The hosts also have superior season-long metrics: Monterrey’s average xG is 1.55 versus Pachuca’s 1.42, and Monterrey wins 59% of home matches with an average of 1.88 points per game, while the visitors win 31% of away fixtures and average 1.31 points per game. At half-time both teams score at a similar rate (0.71 goals for Monterrey vs 0.75 for Pachuca), but Monterrey concedes only 0.41 goals on average before the break compared to 1.00 for Pachuca, which favors the hosts maintaining a lead. However, Pachuca’s current form cannot be ignored: they have won 60% of their last 5 matches, whereas Monterrey have not won any (0%) in that period, so I also give meaningful probability to draw and turnaround scenarios (for example X/1 14%, X/X 11%, 2/2 11%). In summary, the numbers point to the strongest signal for 1/1 (33%), with a notable reserve for X/1 (14%) and X/X (11%); a complete reversal (1/2 or 2/1) is assessed as less likely (7% and 3%).