Montreal Impact vs Charlotte: match statistics

Montreal create more high-quality chances at home: their average xG stands at 1.66 compared with Charlotte’s 1.20 away from home, while the hosts register 5.45 shots on target per match versus 3.9 for their opponents. Charlotte, however, are in clearly better recent form, collecting 10 points from their last five matches and scoring 11 goals, compared with Montreal’s 6 points and 7 goals. The hosts’ home defense is more solid, conceding an average of 1.18 goals and allowing 1.22 xG, whereas the visitors concede as many as 1.90 goals away from home, with 1.89 xG against. Montreal have drawn 45% of their home matches, while Charlotte have won only 30% of their away fixtures, making a share of the points the most likely outcome. Charlotte’s superior conversion rate of 14% compared with Montreal’s 9% should nevertheless enable the visitors to pose a genuine threat to the hosts.

Montreal have recorded BTTS in 75% of their matches this season, while Charlotte have done so in 60%, compared with a league average of 63%. The hosts have scored an average of 2.17 goals per match, while Charlotte have conceded an average of 1.90 goals away from home, which strongly supports a Montreal goal. The visitors’ chances of responding are also solid: they have scored 2.2 goals per game across their last five matches, while Montreal have conceded as many as 2.4 goals per match during the same period. In addition, Montreal have recorded BTTS in each of their last 5 matches, and Charlotte’s xG stands at 1.50 compared with 1.45 xG conceded by the hosts recently. A scenario in which both teams score is therefore more likely than BTTS No, meaning that at least one team fails to score—not necessarily a 0:0 draw or a match in which neither team scores.

Montreal score an average of 2.17 goals at home, while Charlotte concede as many as 1.90 goals away from home, clearly supporting the hosts’ scoring potential. However, Charlotte are in good attacking form: they have scored 11 goals in their last five matches, averaging 2.2 per game, while Montreal have conceded 12 goals during that period. The combined xG from the last five appearances suggests an open game, standing at 1.55 for Montreal and 1.50 for Charlotte, while the visitors allow opponents as much as 1.96 xG. At least two goals were scored in 75% of Montreal’s matches and 90% of Charlotte’s, making Over 1.5 goals the strongest and most consistent option.

Montreal holds a clear advantage in the season-long data: they win 58% of their matches, score an average of 2.17 goals, and concede 1.08, while Charlotte lose 50% of their games and allow opponents an average of 1.90 goals. The hosts led at the break in 6 of 12 matches, or 50%, while Charlotte were level at half-time in as many as 50% of their away games. Therefore, alongside 1/1, the draw-at-half-time/Montreal-win scenario remains relevant. The hosts’ advantage should grow after the interval, as they score an average of 1.33 goals in second halves, while Charlotte concede 1.10. Montreal also create more chances, averaging 6.0 shots on target compared with Charlotte’s 3.9, with an xG of 1.56 versus 1.20. The last five matches favor Charlotte, who won 60% of them, but Montreal’s weaker current run does not outweigh the hosts’ significant overall-season advantage and their stronger home attacking profile.